Morning Report 01.05.2015
Nicholas Ebisch, FX Analyst
Yesterday saw positive Spanish data, and encouraging Eurozone CPI data which shows that the Eurozone may be recovering faster than was previously anticipated, with inflation staying steady at zero and not contracting. The euro gained against its major counterparts yesterday, and may have scope to continue today, as the Eurozone takes a bank holiday. Yesterday’s dollar depreciation was stymied by positive unemployment claims data in the afternoon. Today, we will see Manufacturing PMI from the UK and ISM manufacturing PMI from the states later in the afternoon.
GBP/EUR: Currently trading at 1.3657
The rate fell further yesterday, in light of some better-than-forecast euro data. Spain’s economy grew 0.9% in the first quarter, its fastest growth in seven years, and CPI data showed inflation holding instead of contracting for the first time this year.
With bank holidays in several countries, no euro data is expected today. This morning’s releases include UK Manufacturing PMI, forecast to increase 0.2 to 54.6, and m/m Net Lending to Individuals, also forecast to increase. We may see a slight strengthening of the pound as a result, but otherwise expect the euro to maintain its strength.
GBP/USD: Currently trading at 1.5347
Stronger-than-expected US data saw the greenback halting Sterling’s gain as cable weakened after several days of hitting month or two-month highs. US unemployment claims came in at a 15-year low at 262,000, and Employment Cost Index q/q also performed slightly better than forecast at 0.7%, indicating that wages are starting to pick up. Other US data were mixed, with both Core PCE Price Index m/m and Personal Spending m/m coming in slightly under forecasts.
Today sees the announcement of US and UK manufacturing PMI data, both forecast to increase slightly over last month’s results, as well as m/m UK Net Lending to Individuals. We may see the dollar continue to regain ground against the pound as markets continue to react to yesterday’s data, as well as today’s releases.
EUR/USD: Currently trading at 1.1254
Stronger-than-expected US data saw the greenback vying with a strong euro, resulting in some volatility in yesterday’s rate. US unemployment claims and employment cost data came in better than forecast, as did Spain’s q/q Flash GDP.
With no data out of the eurozone today, US data will be a primary motivator for the pairing, in addition to markets’ continued reactions to this week’s Fed statement and yesterday’s strong euro data. We may see the euro make further gains against the dollar.
GBP/AUD: Currently trading at 1.9422
The Australian dollar is still on the back foot, as we enter the first day of May. Market participants are holding their breath in anticipation of the Australian central bank meeting, which will happen during early morning hours of Tuesday May 5th. The Australian central bank has hinted that they could raise interest rates as soon as their upcoming meeting.
Australia did produce some good data overnight with positive PPI q/q data released early this morning, which strengthened the Aussie slightly. Traders will also look to AUD Building Approvals m/m data on Monday during the UK bank holiday, and trade balance very early Tuesday morning as the last major data points before the Australian central bank meeting.
GBP/NZD: Currently trading at 2.0249
With no data out of the UK or New Zealand yesterday, the markets continued to react to Wednesday’s RBNZ statement. While the kiwi strengthened nearly two cents against the pound throughout yesterday’s session, the rate seems to have self-corrected overnight, erasing those gains.
Today’s data releases include UK Manufacturing PMI (9:30), forecast to increase slightly to 54.6, indicating slightly improved economic health. In addition to this week’s RBNZ statement, UK data will be the primary mover for this pairing until next week’s release of New Zealand’s unemployment data and Global Dairy Trade Price Index. The rate may remain range-bound.
GBP/CAD: Currently trading at 1.8558
We witnessed more volatility yesterday with the loonie advancing momentarily before losing ground. Canadian GDP m/m remained unchanged in February from January.
The key driver for today is UK Manufacturing PMI data in the early session, which is being forecast to increase by 0.2 per cent. This could give the pound a helping hand and push it higher before the weekend. Weaker-than-expected data could do the opposite.
This blog is prepared by Caxton FX Ltd for information purposes only and may contain personal views that are not the opinion of the company. This is not an offer to purchase or sell any security or an investment advertisement. Caxton FX Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, although foreign exchange transactions with Caxton FX are regulated by HM Revenue and Customs. This email does not constitute advice for any foreign exchange transaction, nor is it intended as a solicitation for funds or recommendation to trade.
Subscribe to our morning, weekly or monthly reports here and make sure you never miss an update: https://www.caxtonfx.com/currency-banking/the-caxton-account#Free-currency-reports
Tuesday, 5 May 2015
Volatility likely during election week
Morning Report 05.05.2015
Nicholas Ebisch, FX Analyst
The pound fell across the board on the Friday before election week as the close race is unnerving investors. This week’s polls and run up to the election will very likely catalyse some market volatility during a busy week. Additionally, Australia has cut its benchmark interest rate to 2% from 2.25% in an attempt to boost an economy which is dragging largely due to the end of a very long mining boom. Today, we will see construction PMI figures from the UK, US and Canadian trade balance, and US non-manufacturing PMI
GBP/EUR: Currently trading at 1.3609
Friday’s UK Manufacturing PMI came in much lower than expected, and the pound steadily weakened over the course of the day, with some correction seen in the rate during yesterday’s UK Bank Holiday. Eurozone manufacturing PMI data released yesterday came in better than expected for Italy but worse than expected for Spain.
This morning’s Spanish Unemployment Change came in significantly better than expected at -118.9K versus -64.8K. UK Construction PMI will be released this morning, with EU Economic Forecasts out later this morning. With the possibility of Sterling volatility as a result of election uncertainty, we may see the rate increase.
GBP/USD: Currently trading at 1.5121
Following a 1.72% (nearly two-cent) drop on Friday after disappointing UK manufacturing data, the dollar made further gains in yesterday’s session. Announcements from the US included m/m Factory orders, which came in as forecast at 2.1%, and expectedly dovish comments by Fed member Charles Evans, who reiterated his support for a 2016 rate increase despite optimism about US growth.
Today’s releases include this morning’s announcement of UK Construction PMI data and this afternoon’s US trade balance and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. We may see some volatility in the pound as the election comes up this week.
EUR/USD: Currently trading at 1.1107
After weak US data, the euro reached a two-month high against the dollar at the end of the week. Monday’s releases included manufacturing PMI data, which came in worse than expected from Spain but better than expected from Italy, as well as m/m Factory Order, which met forecasts. Last night, Fed member Charles Evans spoke, indicating his continued preference for a 2016 rate increase.
The main releases for today include Spain’s Unemployment Change, which beat forecasts at -118.9K, as well as US trade balance and ISM non-manufacturing PMI, both of which are forecast to come in slightly worse than in the previous release. This may provide room for the euro to continue making gains against the dollar.
GBP/AUD: Currently trading at 1.9210
With the RBA dropping the cash rate to 2.00% this morning, we saw a sharp two-cent gain in favour of the Aussie as investors reacted to this news. However, this advance was short lived as RBA comments stated that further easing is highly unlikely unless the outlook worsens significantly. The gains were also dampened by Australia’s trade deficit falling below expectations, largely due to the dropping prices for iron ore and coal exports.
Today sees the release of UK PMI construction data, forecast to cool off on last month’s reading along with US trade balance today, forecasting the deficit to widen this month. We should therefore see a fairly volatile day.
GBP/NZD: Currently trading at 2.0073
Heading into the weekend, the rate reacted to Friday’s weaker-than-expected UK manufacturing PMI data and last week’s RNBZ statement. With no major data out yesterday, the rate remained in the 2.00-2.01 range.
This morning’s UK Construction PMI data, forecast to decrease slightly, may influence the morning session, while the later session will be shaped by the release of New Zealand’s Global Dairy Trade Price Index and anticipation of unemployment data, with q/q employment change forecast to come in at 0.7% and the unemployment rate expected to decrease slightly. We may see the rate remain range-bound, with room for fluctuations based on New Zealand’s data.
GBP/CAD: Currently trading at 1.8352
On Friday we learnt that UK Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly slowed last month, with the index falling to a seven-month low of 51.9, from 54 in March. The loonie was able to capitalise and went on to bank gains throughout the day.
Today’s focus will be on UK Construction PMI data in the early session, with analysts predicting a slight decline from last month. This along with a positive shift in the Canadian Trade balance should provide the loonie with added support today.
This blog is prepared by Caxton FX Ltd for information purposes only and may contain personal views that are not the opinion of the company. This is not an offer to purchase or sell any security or an investment advertisement. Caxton FX Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, although foreign exchange transactions with Caxton FX are regulated by HM Revenue and Customs. This email does not constitute advice for any foreign exchange transaction, nor is it intended as a solicitation for funds or recommendation to trade.
Subscribe to our morning, weekly or monthly reports here and make sure you never miss an update: https://www.caxtonfx.com/currency-banking/the-caxton-account#Free-currency-reports
Nicholas Ebisch, FX Analyst
The pound fell across the board on the Friday before election week as the close race is unnerving investors. This week’s polls and run up to the election will very likely catalyse some market volatility during a busy week. Additionally, Australia has cut its benchmark interest rate to 2% from 2.25% in an attempt to boost an economy which is dragging largely due to the end of a very long mining boom. Today, we will see construction PMI figures from the UK, US and Canadian trade balance, and US non-manufacturing PMI
GBP/EUR: Currently trading at 1.3609
Friday’s UK Manufacturing PMI came in much lower than expected, and the pound steadily weakened over the course of the day, with some correction seen in the rate during yesterday’s UK Bank Holiday. Eurozone manufacturing PMI data released yesterday came in better than expected for Italy but worse than expected for Spain.
This morning’s Spanish Unemployment Change came in significantly better than expected at -118.9K versus -64.8K. UK Construction PMI will be released this morning, with EU Economic Forecasts out later this morning. With the possibility of Sterling volatility as a result of election uncertainty, we may see the rate increase.
GBP/USD: Currently trading at 1.5121
Following a 1.72% (nearly two-cent) drop on Friday after disappointing UK manufacturing data, the dollar made further gains in yesterday’s session. Announcements from the US included m/m Factory orders, which came in as forecast at 2.1%, and expectedly dovish comments by Fed member Charles Evans, who reiterated his support for a 2016 rate increase despite optimism about US growth.
Today’s releases include this morning’s announcement of UK Construction PMI data and this afternoon’s US trade balance and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. We may see some volatility in the pound as the election comes up this week.
EUR/USD: Currently trading at 1.1107
After weak US data, the euro reached a two-month high against the dollar at the end of the week. Monday’s releases included manufacturing PMI data, which came in worse than expected from Spain but better than expected from Italy, as well as m/m Factory Order, which met forecasts. Last night, Fed member Charles Evans spoke, indicating his continued preference for a 2016 rate increase.
The main releases for today include Spain’s Unemployment Change, which beat forecasts at -118.9K, as well as US trade balance and ISM non-manufacturing PMI, both of which are forecast to come in slightly worse than in the previous release. This may provide room for the euro to continue making gains against the dollar.
GBP/AUD: Currently trading at 1.9210
With the RBA dropping the cash rate to 2.00% this morning, we saw a sharp two-cent gain in favour of the Aussie as investors reacted to this news. However, this advance was short lived as RBA comments stated that further easing is highly unlikely unless the outlook worsens significantly. The gains were also dampened by Australia’s trade deficit falling below expectations, largely due to the dropping prices for iron ore and coal exports.
Today sees the release of UK PMI construction data, forecast to cool off on last month’s reading along with US trade balance today, forecasting the deficit to widen this month. We should therefore see a fairly volatile day.
GBP/NZD: Currently trading at 2.0073
Heading into the weekend, the rate reacted to Friday’s weaker-than-expected UK manufacturing PMI data and last week’s RNBZ statement. With no major data out yesterday, the rate remained in the 2.00-2.01 range.
This morning’s UK Construction PMI data, forecast to decrease slightly, may influence the morning session, while the later session will be shaped by the release of New Zealand’s Global Dairy Trade Price Index and anticipation of unemployment data, with q/q employment change forecast to come in at 0.7% and the unemployment rate expected to decrease slightly. We may see the rate remain range-bound, with room for fluctuations based on New Zealand’s data.
GBP/CAD: Currently trading at 1.8352
On Friday we learnt that UK Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly slowed last month, with the index falling to a seven-month low of 51.9, from 54 in March. The loonie was able to capitalise and went on to bank gains throughout the day.
Today’s focus will be on UK Construction PMI data in the early session, with analysts predicting a slight decline from last month. This along with a positive shift in the Canadian Trade balance should provide the loonie with added support today.
This blog is prepared by Caxton FX Ltd for information purposes only and may contain personal views that are not the opinion of the company. This is not an offer to purchase or sell any security or an investment advertisement. Caxton FX Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, although foreign exchange transactions with Caxton FX are regulated by HM Revenue and Customs. This email does not constitute advice for any foreign exchange transaction, nor is it intended as a solicitation for funds or recommendation to trade.
Subscribe to our morning, weekly or monthly reports here and make sure you never miss an update: https://www.caxtonfx.com/currency-banking/the-caxton-account#Free-currency-reports
Thursday, 30 April 2015
US Fed wary on poor growth
Morning Report 30.04.2015
Nicholas Ebisch, FX Analyst
During last night’s Federal Reserve meeting, the Fed acknowledged that economic growth was poor during the winter months for a number of reasons, but they took a modest tone in the meeting, which didn’t affect the dollar too badly one way or another. There are still positive signs in the US economy in the form of low unemployment, good consumer confidence, and household incomes continuing to rise. However, Fed officials will want to see inflation picking up towards their 2% target and employment rates continuing to improve before they make a move on interest rates. Today’s data will include GDP m/m from Canada, unemployment claims from the US, and the Bank of Canada’s governor Poloz speaking in Ottawa.
GBP/EUR: Currently trading at 1.3820
Yesterday saw the euro strengthening against the pound as German Bund yields rose and confidence increased about the possibility of a Greek deal.
This morning session opened with the euro making further gains against the pound. With no data out from the UK today, attention will be on this morning’s eurozone data, including the Unemployment Rate and y/y CPI and Core CPI Flash Estimates. Forecasts see the data either matching previous releases or slightly improving on them, so we may see the euro continue to strengthen.
GBP/USD: Currently trading at 1.5434
Yesterday’s Advance GDP q/q came in much weaker than expected, at 0.2% instead of 1.0% and down from the previous quarter’s 2.2%. The pound gained 0.29% on the dollar as a result, and cable reached 1.545 for the first time since February. Last night, the Fed held rates, and the FOMC statement removed hints of a rate increase in June but indicated that recent poor US performance may be temporary.
In light of last night’s Fed meeting and with no UK data expected today, the focus will be on this afternoon’s US data. Releases include unemployment claims, forecast to come in down from the previous week at 290K, as well as Core PCE Price Index m/m, employment cost index q/q, and personal spending m/m. A strong showing from US data may see the dollar regaining some ground.
EUR/USD: Currently trading at 1.1164
In light of further weak data from the US, particularly a disappointing result from Advance GDP q/q, the dollar weakened, which found the rate reaching new highs since early March. This combined with strengthening from the euro as German Bund yields rose due to lessening deflation concerns and optimism about the possibility of a Greek deal. Last night, the Fed held rates and indicated it thought poor first quarter performance was temporary, so a rate increase remains a possibility for later in the year.
Data releases today include announcements from the eurozone of y/y CPI and Core CPI Flash Estimates and Unemployment Rate, as well as US unemployment claims. A positive showing from the US may see the greenback regain some ground against the euro as markets look for cues for a Fed rate increase, but otherwise a strong euro may continue to make gains.
GBP/AUD: Currently trading at 1.9453
A loss in confidence in the USD yesterday aided the pound, as high-yielding currencies such as the Aussie lost ground following weaker-than-forecast GDP data yesterday afternoon. This USD sell-off has continued this morning, and we have seen the UK market react in favour of the pound, pushing the rate above 1.944, regaining all of Tuesday’s losses.
With little data from either side of the pairing today, the focus again lies with US data. As jobless claims are forecast to improve, we could see some resistance to the current trend. Investors will also be looking towards AUD PPI and manufacturing performance data tomorrow morning. With the rate decision next week, we could see an exaggerated reaction to AUD data releases.
GBP/NZD: Currently trading at 2.0348
Last night saw the kiwi weaken after dovish RBNZ comments indicated a rate cut might be in the future if domestic demand weakens and inflation pressures fall. The RBNZ has ruled out an increase in rates for now and held the rate at 3.50%.
With no data out of the UK or New Zealand today, markets will focus on digesting last night RBNZ’s statement. Attention going forward will be on indicators of shifts in demand and inflation for hints at the direction and timing of a future rate change. We may see the rate remain range-bound.
GBP/CAD: Currently trading at 1.8593
The pound continues to be handed support even with a lack of UK data. A momentary dip was seen after Canada released data showing a 0.9 per cent decline in RMPI. This shift in momentum was short lived, as US GDP figures showed economic expansion fell short of the 1 per cent forecast, growing only 0.2 per cent. The pound was able to go on to close the day higher.
Today brings Canadian GDP data in the early afternoon, which is forecast to remain at 0.1 per cent. This will then be followed by a speech from Governor Poloz at 3.30pm. Investors will be honing in and gauging reaction to the speech, even more so after yesterday’s disappointing news from the US. A heavy downside risk will continue to weigh on the loonie throughout the day.
This blog is prepared by Caxton FX Ltd for information purposes only and may contain personal views that are not the opinion of the company. This is not an offer to purchase or sell any security or an investment advertisement. Caxton FX Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, although foreign exchange transactions with Caxton FX are regulated by HM Revenue and Customs. This email does not constitute advice for any foreign exchange transaction, nor is it intended as a solicitation for funds or recommendation to trade.
Subscribe to our morning, weekly or monthly reports here and make sure you never miss an update: https://www.caxtonfx.com/currency-banking/the-caxton-account#Free-currency-reports
Nicholas Ebisch, FX Analyst
During last night’s Federal Reserve meeting, the Fed acknowledged that economic growth was poor during the winter months for a number of reasons, but they took a modest tone in the meeting, which didn’t affect the dollar too badly one way or another. There are still positive signs in the US economy in the form of low unemployment, good consumer confidence, and household incomes continuing to rise. However, Fed officials will want to see inflation picking up towards their 2% target and employment rates continuing to improve before they make a move on interest rates. Today’s data will include GDP m/m from Canada, unemployment claims from the US, and the Bank of Canada’s governor Poloz speaking in Ottawa.
GBP/EUR: Currently trading at 1.3820
Yesterday saw the euro strengthening against the pound as German Bund yields rose and confidence increased about the possibility of a Greek deal.
This morning session opened with the euro making further gains against the pound. With no data out from the UK today, attention will be on this morning’s eurozone data, including the Unemployment Rate and y/y CPI and Core CPI Flash Estimates. Forecasts see the data either matching previous releases or slightly improving on them, so we may see the euro continue to strengthen.
GBP/USD: Currently trading at 1.5434
Yesterday’s Advance GDP q/q came in much weaker than expected, at 0.2% instead of 1.0% and down from the previous quarter’s 2.2%. The pound gained 0.29% on the dollar as a result, and cable reached 1.545 for the first time since February. Last night, the Fed held rates, and the FOMC statement removed hints of a rate increase in June but indicated that recent poor US performance may be temporary.
In light of last night’s Fed meeting and with no UK data expected today, the focus will be on this afternoon’s US data. Releases include unemployment claims, forecast to come in down from the previous week at 290K, as well as Core PCE Price Index m/m, employment cost index q/q, and personal spending m/m. A strong showing from US data may see the dollar regaining some ground.
EUR/USD: Currently trading at 1.1164
In light of further weak data from the US, particularly a disappointing result from Advance GDP q/q, the dollar weakened, which found the rate reaching new highs since early March. This combined with strengthening from the euro as German Bund yields rose due to lessening deflation concerns and optimism about the possibility of a Greek deal. Last night, the Fed held rates and indicated it thought poor first quarter performance was temporary, so a rate increase remains a possibility for later in the year.
Data releases today include announcements from the eurozone of y/y CPI and Core CPI Flash Estimates and Unemployment Rate, as well as US unemployment claims. A positive showing from the US may see the greenback regain some ground against the euro as markets look for cues for a Fed rate increase, but otherwise a strong euro may continue to make gains.
GBP/AUD: Currently trading at 1.9453
A loss in confidence in the USD yesterday aided the pound, as high-yielding currencies such as the Aussie lost ground following weaker-than-forecast GDP data yesterday afternoon. This USD sell-off has continued this morning, and we have seen the UK market react in favour of the pound, pushing the rate above 1.944, regaining all of Tuesday’s losses.
With little data from either side of the pairing today, the focus again lies with US data. As jobless claims are forecast to improve, we could see some resistance to the current trend. Investors will also be looking towards AUD PPI and manufacturing performance data tomorrow morning. With the rate decision next week, we could see an exaggerated reaction to AUD data releases.
GBP/NZD: Currently trading at 2.0348
Last night saw the kiwi weaken after dovish RBNZ comments indicated a rate cut might be in the future if domestic demand weakens and inflation pressures fall. The RBNZ has ruled out an increase in rates for now and held the rate at 3.50%.
With no data out of the UK or New Zealand today, markets will focus on digesting last night RBNZ’s statement. Attention going forward will be on indicators of shifts in demand and inflation for hints at the direction and timing of a future rate change. We may see the rate remain range-bound.
GBP/CAD: Currently trading at 1.8593
The pound continues to be handed support even with a lack of UK data. A momentary dip was seen after Canada released data showing a 0.9 per cent decline in RMPI. This shift in momentum was short lived, as US GDP figures showed economic expansion fell short of the 1 per cent forecast, growing only 0.2 per cent. The pound was able to go on to close the day higher.
Today brings Canadian GDP data in the early afternoon, which is forecast to remain at 0.1 per cent. This will then be followed by a speech from Governor Poloz at 3.30pm. Investors will be honing in and gauging reaction to the speech, even more so after yesterday’s disappointing news from the US. A heavy downside risk will continue to weigh on the loonie throughout the day.
This blog is prepared by Caxton FX Ltd for information purposes only and may contain personal views that are not the opinion of the company. This is not an offer to purchase or sell any security or an investment advertisement. Caxton FX Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, although foreign exchange transactions with Caxton FX are regulated by HM Revenue and Customs. This email does not constitute advice for any foreign exchange transaction, nor is it intended as a solicitation for funds or recommendation to trade.
Subscribe to our morning, weekly or monthly reports here and make sure you never miss an update: https://www.caxtonfx.com/currency-banking/the-caxton-account#Free-currency-reports
Wednesday, 29 April 2015
Poor US data further weakens dollar
Nicholas Ebisch, FX Analyst
Yesterday saw the dollar sink even lower on the back of poor consumer confidence data. Investors are bracing themselves for the Federal Reserve meeting tonight, which is expected to be dovish. A patch of soft data from the US over the last few weeks has pushed the expectations of an interest rate rise back further into 2015, and tonight’s Fed meeting will reveal how the US central bank feels about the latest poor economic performance. UK preliminary GDP yesterday undershot expectations and came in at 0.3%, the lowest reading in two years, since April 25, 2013. However, the pound was not too adversely affected and soon recovered its losses. Today’s data will include advance GDP q/q from the US, along with an FOMC statement and the Federal Funds rate tonight. New Zealand will also release its official cash rate and an RBNZ rate statement later tonight, with little expectation of a drastic change in the RBNZ’s strategy.
GBP/EUR: Currently trading at 1.3986
Yesterday’s main data was the weaker-than-forecast q/q preliminary GDP from the UK, which came in at 0.3%. However, the pound maintained its strength against the euro.
UK housing inflation data beat forecasts this morning, with Nationwide HPI m/m at 1.0%. Eurozone data from this morning saw y/y M3 Money Supply come in slightly above forecasts at 4.6% and y/y Private Loans meet forecasts at 0.1%. Other data to be released today include German Prelim CPI m/m, forecast to come in at -0.1%. We may see the pound continue to strengthen.
GBP/USD: Currently trading at 1.5385
Sterling briefly weakened around the release of weak GDP data but quickly rebounded, steadily strengthening throughout the day and reaching a new eight-week high as the rate hit 1.53 for the first time since early March. The strong rate received further support from weaker-than-forecast US consumer confidence data – the CB index came in at 95.2, down from the previous month’s 101.4.
The morning’s session sees the pairing remaining above 1.53, as UK Nationwide HPI m/m beat forecasts at 1.0%, indicating a strengthening housing industry. The US will release several pieces of data this afternoon, including Advance GDP q/q and Pending Home Sales m/m, both forecast to come in lower than in the previous release, as well as the FOMC statement and Federal Funds Rate later this evening (7:00pm). The pound looks set to retain its strength against the dollar.
EUR/USD: Currently trading at 1.1001
With no major eurozone data and weak US consumer confidence data, yesterday found the rate reaching its highest point since the beginning of the month, maintaining a rate above 1.098 overnight and hitting 1.10 in this morning’s session.
Data out this morning found y/y M3 Money Supply and Private Loans meeting or improving on forecasts, after which the euro strengthened slightly against the dollar. Today’s US data releases include Advance GDP q/q, an FOMC statement, and a Federal Funds Rate announcement tonight. Barring any surprises from today’s US data, we may see the euro continue to strengthen against the greenback.
GBP/AUD: Currently trading at 1.9253
Following weaker-than-forecast UK preliminary GDP data yesterday morning highlighting a slowing UK economy for the first quarter of 2015, we saw the rate drop off throughout the course of the day, reaching a 10-day low of 1.9100. We did see the pound stage some resistance late last night, aided by a retreating US consumer confidence score.
Data from the US provides the main focus today, including GDP and home sales data along with the FOMC statement and funds rate decision this evening. With investors expecting the recent US decline to continue, a knock-on effect on high- yielding currencies could see the Aussie gains reversed.
GBP/NZD: Currently trading at 1.9934
Yesterday the kiwi saw some gains against the pound during the morning and afternoon sessions, before losing roughly a cent from the release of New Zealand’s trade balance data, which came in above forecasts at 631M, into this morning’s session.
With no major data expected from the UK today, the main data for the pairing will come from New Zealand. Tonight’s announcements include the Official Cash Rate and RBNZ Rate Statement, as well as m/m Building Consents. The pound seems set to retain its strength against the kiwi, barring any unexpected election news or RBNZ announcements, and may remain range-bound.
GBP/CAD: Currently trading at 1.8505
The rate moved in waves yesterday as neither side managed maintain the upper hand for long. The pound suffered an early blow when data showed UK GDP slowed to 0.3 per cent in the first quarter. This negative trend was not sustained, with the pound rebounding after UK Mortgage Approvals data was released, showing banks are lending more to businesses. Bank of Canada Governor Poloz defended himself against criticism regarding January’s surprise rate cut and reiterated the belief that the effects of the oil price shock will fizzle out towards the end of the year.
Today’s calendar brings Canadian RMPI data, which forecasters believe will show a negative change regarding consumer inflation. If correct, downwards pressure will be placed on the loonie.
This blog is prepared by Caxton FX Ltd for information purposes only and may contain personal views that are not the opinion of the company. This is not an offer to purchase or sell any security or an investment advertisement. Caxton FX Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, although foreign exchange transactions with Caxton FX are regulated by HM Revenue and Customs. This email does not constitute advice for any foreign exchange transaction, nor is it intended as a solicitation for funds or recommendation to trade.
Subscribe to our morning, weekly or monthly reports here and make sure you never miss an update: https://www.caxtonfx.com/currency-banking/the-caxton-account#Free-currency-reports
Yesterday saw the dollar sink even lower on the back of poor consumer confidence data. Investors are bracing themselves for the Federal Reserve meeting tonight, which is expected to be dovish. A patch of soft data from the US over the last few weeks has pushed the expectations of an interest rate rise back further into 2015, and tonight’s Fed meeting will reveal how the US central bank feels about the latest poor economic performance. UK preliminary GDP yesterday undershot expectations and came in at 0.3%, the lowest reading in two years, since April 25, 2013. However, the pound was not too adversely affected and soon recovered its losses. Today’s data will include advance GDP q/q from the US, along with an FOMC statement and the Federal Funds rate tonight. New Zealand will also release its official cash rate and an RBNZ rate statement later tonight, with little expectation of a drastic change in the RBNZ’s strategy.
GBP/EUR: Currently trading at 1.3986
Yesterday’s main data was the weaker-than-forecast q/q preliminary GDP from the UK, which came in at 0.3%. However, the pound maintained its strength against the euro.
UK housing inflation data beat forecasts this morning, with Nationwide HPI m/m at 1.0%. Eurozone data from this morning saw y/y M3 Money Supply come in slightly above forecasts at 4.6% and y/y Private Loans meet forecasts at 0.1%. Other data to be released today include German Prelim CPI m/m, forecast to come in at -0.1%. We may see the pound continue to strengthen.
GBP/USD: Currently trading at 1.5385
Sterling briefly weakened around the release of weak GDP data but quickly rebounded, steadily strengthening throughout the day and reaching a new eight-week high as the rate hit 1.53 for the first time since early March. The strong rate received further support from weaker-than-forecast US consumer confidence data – the CB index came in at 95.2, down from the previous month’s 101.4.
The morning’s session sees the pairing remaining above 1.53, as UK Nationwide HPI m/m beat forecasts at 1.0%, indicating a strengthening housing industry. The US will release several pieces of data this afternoon, including Advance GDP q/q and Pending Home Sales m/m, both forecast to come in lower than in the previous release, as well as the FOMC statement and Federal Funds Rate later this evening (7:00pm). The pound looks set to retain its strength against the dollar.
EUR/USD: Currently trading at 1.1001
With no major eurozone data and weak US consumer confidence data, yesterday found the rate reaching its highest point since the beginning of the month, maintaining a rate above 1.098 overnight and hitting 1.10 in this morning’s session.
Data out this morning found y/y M3 Money Supply and Private Loans meeting or improving on forecasts, after which the euro strengthened slightly against the dollar. Today’s US data releases include Advance GDP q/q, an FOMC statement, and a Federal Funds Rate announcement tonight. Barring any surprises from today’s US data, we may see the euro continue to strengthen against the greenback.
GBP/AUD: Currently trading at 1.9253
Following weaker-than-forecast UK preliminary GDP data yesterday morning highlighting a slowing UK economy for the first quarter of 2015, we saw the rate drop off throughout the course of the day, reaching a 10-day low of 1.9100. We did see the pound stage some resistance late last night, aided by a retreating US consumer confidence score.
Data from the US provides the main focus today, including GDP and home sales data along with the FOMC statement and funds rate decision this evening. With investors expecting the recent US decline to continue, a knock-on effect on high- yielding currencies could see the Aussie gains reversed.
GBP/NZD: Currently trading at 1.9934
Yesterday the kiwi saw some gains against the pound during the morning and afternoon sessions, before losing roughly a cent from the release of New Zealand’s trade balance data, which came in above forecasts at 631M, into this morning’s session.
With no major data expected from the UK today, the main data for the pairing will come from New Zealand. Tonight’s announcements include the Official Cash Rate and RBNZ Rate Statement, as well as m/m Building Consents. The pound seems set to retain its strength against the kiwi, barring any unexpected election news or RBNZ announcements, and may remain range-bound.
GBP/CAD: Currently trading at 1.8505
The rate moved in waves yesterday as neither side managed maintain the upper hand for long. The pound suffered an early blow when data showed UK GDP slowed to 0.3 per cent in the first quarter. This negative trend was not sustained, with the pound rebounding after UK Mortgage Approvals data was released, showing banks are lending more to businesses. Bank of Canada Governor Poloz defended himself against criticism regarding January’s surprise rate cut and reiterated the belief that the effects of the oil price shock will fizzle out towards the end of the year.
Today’s calendar brings Canadian RMPI data, which forecasters believe will show a negative change regarding consumer inflation. If correct, downwards pressure will be placed on the loonie.
This blog is prepared by Caxton FX Ltd for information purposes only and may contain personal views that are not the opinion of the company. This is not an offer to purchase or sell any security or an investment advertisement. Caxton FX Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, although foreign exchange transactions with Caxton FX are regulated by HM Revenue and Customs. This email does not constitute advice for any foreign exchange transaction, nor is it intended as a solicitation for funds or recommendation to trade.
Subscribe to our morning, weekly or monthly reports here and make sure you never miss an update: https://www.caxtonfx.com/currency-banking/the-caxton-account#Free-currency-reports
Tuesday, 28 April 2015
Pound stable despite election uncertainty
Morning Report 28.04.2015
Nicholas Ebisch, FX Analyst
Yesterday’s quieter calendar provided room for speculators to trade in the way that they saw fit. The pound gained against the euro, dollar, and several other currencies during the trading session yesterday, as traders are still wary of the risks facing the euro and dollar. The pound has been unusually stable despite the pressure of next week’s general election outcome being far from certain. Although there is still uncertainty about which way the election will go, the pound is holding up, and there does not seem to be positioning for a prolonged slump following Election Day next Thursday. Today’s calendar includes Preliminary GDP q/q from the UK, followed this afternoon by the Bank of Canada’s governor Poloz speaking in Ottawa, and finally ending with US consumer confidence data.
GBP/EUR: Currently trading at 1.3949
Yesterday, Greece announced that Deputy Foreign Minister Tsakalotos will be handling day-to-day negotiations with Greece’s creditors, while Varoufakis will remain in charge of political negotiations. The pound nevertheless maintained its strength against the euro.
This morning, the UK released its q/q preliminary GDP, which came in slightly worse than forecast at 0.3%. With no major data expected from the eurozone today, attention will be on the continuing negotiations for a Greek deal before its upcoming repayments.
GBP/USD: Currently trading at 1.5190
The pound maintained its strength against the dollar yesterday, gaining about 0.86% against the dollar in the afternoon session. The rate reached the 1.52 mark, where it continued to trade into this morning’s session.
The results of the UK’s preliminary GDP q/q came in slightly worse than expected, leading the rate to drop below 1.52 for the first time this morning. Data to be released this afternoon include the results of the US’s CB Consumer Confidence index, forecast to show a slight increase over the previous month. Indications of an improvement in the US outlook may see a slight strengthening of the dollar as markets look ahead to Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.
EUR/USD: Currently trading at 1.0884
After the announcement that Greece would be putting Deputy Foreign Minister Tsakalotos in charge of some of the negotiations with Greece’s creditors, the euro jumped nearly 0.7% against the dollar as the Athens Stock Exchange index rallied in response to the news. The dollar has since regained some of the ground it lost yesterday.
This afternoon’s release of US consumer confidence data may see the dollar regain some of the ground that it lost during yesterday’s sessions. Markets will be waiting to see whether tomorrow’s FOMC statement reveals clues about the date of a US rate increase, as well as whether the change in Greece’s negotiating team will lead to a deal between Greece and its creditors.
GBP/AUD: Currently trading at 1.9241
The rate remained between 1.934 and 1.943 yesterday, barring a brief half-cent drop following strong US PMI data, which indicated a sustained improvement in U.S. service sector output. This drop was short lived as we saw the rate push back up to 1.94. RBA Governor Stevens decided not to comment on monetary policy last night, ahead of the board meeting next week. However, his words appeared to weaken the Aussie slightly, with the rate returning to nearer the 1.93 mark.
With no new data expected from Australia, fluctuations in the rate may come from adjustments to today’s weak UK GDP data and last night’s speech by RBA Governor Stevens.
GBP/NZD: Currently trading at 1.9840
With no major data out of New Zealand yesterday, at the start of this morning’s session, Sterling gained back some of the ground it had lost against the kiwi in earlier sessions.
Weaker than expected UK prelim GDP data has seen Sterling weaken slightly against the kiwi. As the markets adjust to the data release, focus will be on tonight’s announcement of New Zealand’s trade balance, the first data release this week from New Zealand. Its trade balance is forecast to increase to 312M from 50M last month, and a strong showing from exports data could see the kiwi strengthen.
GBP/CAD: Currently trading at 1.8466
With a quiet day on the calendar yesterday, some Sterling gains were seen in the afternoon. This was unexpected and can be attributed to poor services PMI data from the US. This resulted in investors unwinding their USD positions and looking for more profitable positions ahead of a crunch meeting from the Fed on Wednesday.
Today, attention will be on the effects of prelim q/q GDP for the UK economy, which came in below expectations and may see some Sterling weakness in the morning session. The afternoon session will focus on BOC Governor Poloz’s speech (13:45). With the recent pickup in oil prices, this address may include some positive sentiment about the outlook for the Canadian economy, which could lead to some CAD gains in the afternoon.
This blog is prepared by Caxton FX Ltd for information purposes only and may contain personal views that are not the opinion of the company. This is not an offer to purchase or sell any security or an investment advertisement. Caxton FX Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, although foreign exchange transactions with Caxton FX are regulated by HM Revenue and Customs. This email does not constitute advice for any foreign exchange transaction, nor is it intended as a solicitation for funds or recommendation to trade.
Subscribe to our morning, weekly or monthly reports here and make sure you never miss an update: https://www.caxtonfx.com/currency-banking/the-caxton-account#Free-currency-reports
Nicholas Ebisch, FX Analyst
Yesterday’s quieter calendar provided room for speculators to trade in the way that they saw fit. The pound gained against the euro, dollar, and several other currencies during the trading session yesterday, as traders are still wary of the risks facing the euro and dollar. The pound has been unusually stable despite the pressure of next week’s general election outcome being far from certain. Although there is still uncertainty about which way the election will go, the pound is holding up, and there does not seem to be positioning for a prolonged slump following Election Day next Thursday. Today’s calendar includes Preliminary GDP q/q from the UK, followed this afternoon by the Bank of Canada’s governor Poloz speaking in Ottawa, and finally ending with US consumer confidence data.
GBP/EUR: Currently trading at 1.3949
Yesterday, Greece announced that Deputy Foreign Minister Tsakalotos will be handling day-to-day negotiations with Greece’s creditors, while Varoufakis will remain in charge of political negotiations. The pound nevertheless maintained its strength against the euro.
This morning, the UK released its q/q preliminary GDP, which came in slightly worse than forecast at 0.3%. With no major data expected from the eurozone today, attention will be on the continuing negotiations for a Greek deal before its upcoming repayments.
GBP/USD: Currently trading at 1.5190
The pound maintained its strength against the dollar yesterday, gaining about 0.86% against the dollar in the afternoon session. The rate reached the 1.52 mark, where it continued to trade into this morning’s session.
The results of the UK’s preliminary GDP q/q came in slightly worse than expected, leading the rate to drop below 1.52 for the first time this morning. Data to be released this afternoon include the results of the US’s CB Consumer Confidence index, forecast to show a slight increase over the previous month. Indications of an improvement in the US outlook may see a slight strengthening of the dollar as markets look ahead to Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.
EUR/USD: Currently trading at 1.0884
After the announcement that Greece would be putting Deputy Foreign Minister Tsakalotos in charge of some of the negotiations with Greece’s creditors, the euro jumped nearly 0.7% against the dollar as the Athens Stock Exchange index rallied in response to the news. The dollar has since regained some of the ground it lost yesterday.
This afternoon’s release of US consumer confidence data may see the dollar regain some of the ground that it lost during yesterday’s sessions. Markets will be waiting to see whether tomorrow’s FOMC statement reveals clues about the date of a US rate increase, as well as whether the change in Greece’s negotiating team will lead to a deal between Greece and its creditors.
GBP/AUD: Currently trading at 1.9241
The rate remained between 1.934 and 1.943 yesterday, barring a brief half-cent drop following strong US PMI data, which indicated a sustained improvement in U.S. service sector output. This drop was short lived as we saw the rate push back up to 1.94. RBA Governor Stevens decided not to comment on monetary policy last night, ahead of the board meeting next week. However, his words appeared to weaken the Aussie slightly, with the rate returning to nearer the 1.93 mark.
With no new data expected from Australia, fluctuations in the rate may come from adjustments to today’s weak UK GDP data and last night’s speech by RBA Governor Stevens.
GBP/NZD: Currently trading at 1.9840
With no major data out of New Zealand yesterday, at the start of this morning’s session, Sterling gained back some of the ground it had lost against the kiwi in earlier sessions.
Weaker than expected UK prelim GDP data has seen Sterling weaken slightly against the kiwi. As the markets adjust to the data release, focus will be on tonight’s announcement of New Zealand’s trade balance, the first data release this week from New Zealand. Its trade balance is forecast to increase to 312M from 50M last month, and a strong showing from exports data could see the kiwi strengthen.
GBP/CAD: Currently trading at 1.8466
With a quiet day on the calendar yesterday, some Sterling gains were seen in the afternoon. This was unexpected and can be attributed to poor services PMI data from the US. This resulted in investors unwinding their USD positions and looking for more profitable positions ahead of a crunch meeting from the Fed on Wednesday.
Today, attention will be on the effects of prelim q/q GDP for the UK economy, which came in below expectations and may see some Sterling weakness in the morning session. The afternoon session will focus on BOC Governor Poloz’s speech (13:45). With the recent pickup in oil prices, this address may include some positive sentiment about the outlook for the Canadian economy, which could lead to some CAD gains in the afternoon.
This blog is prepared by Caxton FX Ltd for information purposes only and may contain personal views that are not the opinion of the company. This is not an offer to purchase or sell any security or an investment advertisement. Caxton FX Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, although foreign exchange transactions with Caxton FX are regulated by HM Revenue and Customs. This email does not constitute advice for any foreign exchange transaction, nor is it intended as a solicitation for funds or recommendation to trade.
Subscribe to our morning, weekly or monthly reports here and make sure you never miss an update: https://www.caxtonfx.com/currency-banking/the-caxton-account#Free-currency-reports
Monday, 27 April 2015
Cable at 7-week high on unstable dollar
Nicholas Ebisch, FX Analyst
The dollar posted broad losses over the weekend, driven by negative sentiment about US economic performance over the last few weeks. Poor data on Friday, in the form of core durable goods orders m/m, did not bode well for the greenback, which was already on the back foot. Cable rose significantly on the negative dollar sentiment, and further volatility can be expected, as we look forward to the Federal Reserve meeting this week on Wednesday. There is little on the calendar today, apart from RBA governor Stevens speaking at a conference later tonight. This could be a high-impact conference, as the Australian central bank is largely expected to cut interest rates at their next meeting in May.
GBP/EUR: Currently trading at 1.3968
On Friday, the focus was on Eurogroup meetings in Riga, with no new UK data released. No Greece deal was reached, as expected, and while the official line remains that Greece will not default and that the eurozone is indivisible, some finance ministers expressed frustration with Greece's reluctance to commit to reforms, including capital controls, and called for a Plan B in case of a Greek default.
Today's main data release is the results of the UK's CBI Industrial Order Expectations, forecast to show an increase in the number of orders received. Negotiations will continue between Greece and its creditors as Greece looks for a way to pay this week's salaries and pensions in addition to upcoming repayments to the IMF. We can expect continued volatility from the euro, with the possibility of some strengthening from the pound if today’s data results are positive.
GBP/USD: Currently trading at 1.5179
US Core Durable Goods data came in weaker than forecast, at -0.2%, on Friday, combining with earlier weak data and indications from last Wednesday’s MPC Votes that UK rates might rise sooner than expected to contribute to the pound’s strengthening against the greenback. Friday saw the rate reaching 1.51 for the first time since early March.
The main data release for this pairing will be the result of CBI Industrial Orders Expectations (11:00amBST), forecast to increase. Investors will be looking ahead to the FOMC’s statement on Wednesday to determine the effect of further weak data on the target date for a rate increase. In light of this, we may see the greenback continue to weaken against sterling.
EUR/USD: Currently trading at 1.0864
Last week’s data results were disappointing from both the eurozone and the US, with Friday's core durable goods the latest in a string of weak US data. No deal was reached to secure further aid for Greece during meetings of eurozone finance ministers in Riga Friday, so negotiations will continue this week.
With no major data expected, we may see this pairing remain range-bound. Fluctuations in the rate will come from any news about Greece’s negotiations with its creditors and ongoing questions about the date of a US rate increase in light of recent weak US data and Wednesday’s FOMC statement.
GBP/AUD: Currently trading at 1.9380
Last week saw the pound gradually regain its recent losses with the rate climbing back up to nearer the 1.94 mark on Friday.
A positive result from this morning’s UK Industrial Order Expectations may see sterling strengthen. With RBA Gov Glenn Stevens speaking later tonight, we are likely to see some volatility as he is expected to comment on last week’s AUD CPI data. Tomorrow the UK will announce Preliminary GDP data, which could have an immediate effect on the market following an unexpected result, especially as investors will be scrutinizing data in light of the nearing election.
GBP/NZD: Currently trading at 1.9931
The kiwi hit 2.00 last Friday as the markets continued to adjust to disappointing data from both the US and New Zealand. New Zealand last week saw m/m visitor arrivals decreasing 3.6% and y/y credit card spending increasing by 5.2%, slightly less than the previous month’s y/y increase of 5.8%.
This morning’s UK CBI Industrial Order Expectations results may leave room for the pound to gain further ground against the kiwi. Looking ahead, no new data is expected from New Zealand today, so the focus will be on tomorrow night’s (11:45BST) trade balance announcement, forecast to increase to 312M from last month’s 50M. Data indicating strong New Zealand exports may see the kiwi strengthen.
GBP/CAD: Currently trading at 1.8454
On Friday the pound unexpectedly gained more than a cent leading up to the day’s sole data release. Governor Poloz spoke in the afternoon, with a view that the damage from a drop in oil prices will disappear in the second half of the year.
With a quiet calendar to start the week, investors will already be looking ahead to tomorrow with UK GDP Preliminary data in the early session, followed by a speech from Governor Poloz in the afternoon. With this in mind, we don’t expect to see much change today.
This blog is prepared by Caxton FX Ltd for information purposes only and may contain personal views that are not the opinion of the company. This is not an offer to purchase or sell any security or an investment advertisement. Caxton FX Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, although foreign exchange transactions with Caxton FX are regulated by HM Revenue and Customs. This email does not constitute advice for any foreign exchange transaction, nor is it intended as a solicitation for funds or recommendation to trade.
Subscribe to our morning, weekly or monthly reports here and make sure you never miss an update: https://www.caxtonfx.com/currency-banking/the-caxton-account#Free-currency-reports
The dollar posted broad losses over the weekend, driven by negative sentiment about US economic performance over the last few weeks. Poor data on Friday, in the form of core durable goods orders m/m, did not bode well for the greenback, which was already on the back foot. Cable rose significantly on the negative dollar sentiment, and further volatility can be expected, as we look forward to the Federal Reserve meeting this week on Wednesday. There is little on the calendar today, apart from RBA governor Stevens speaking at a conference later tonight. This could be a high-impact conference, as the Australian central bank is largely expected to cut interest rates at their next meeting in May.
GBP/EUR: Currently trading at 1.3968
On Friday, the focus was on Eurogroup meetings in Riga, with no new UK data released. No Greece deal was reached, as expected, and while the official line remains that Greece will not default and that the eurozone is indivisible, some finance ministers expressed frustration with Greece's reluctance to commit to reforms, including capital controls, and called for a Plan B in case of a Greek default.
Today's main data release is the results of the UK's CBI Industrial Order Expectations, forecast to show an increase in the number of orders received. Negotiations will continue between Greece and its creditors as Greece looks for a way to pay this week's salaries and pensions in addition to upcoming repayments to the IMF. We can expect continued volatility from the euro, with the possibility of some strengthening from the pound if today’s data results are positive.
GBP/USD: Currently trading at 1.5179
US Core Durable Goods data came in weaker than forecast, at -0.2%, on Friday, combining with earlier weak data and indications from last Wednesday’s MPC Votes that UK rates might rise sooner than expected to contribute to the pound’s strengthening against the greenback. Friday saw the rate reaching 1.51 for the first time since early March.
The main data release for this pairing will be the result of CBI Industrial Orders Expectations (11:00amBST), forecast to increase. Investors will be looking ahead to the FOMC’s statement on Wednesday to determine the effect of further weak data on the target date for a rate increase. In light of this, we may see the greenback continue to weaken against sterling.
EUR/USD: Currently trading at 1.0864
Last week’s data results were disappointing from both the eurozone and the US, with Friday's core durable goods the latest in a string of weak US data. No deal was reached to secure further aid for Greece during meetings of eurozone finance ministers in Riga Friday, so negotiations will continue this week.
With no major data expected, we may see this pairing remain range-bound. Fluctuations in the rate will come from any news about Greece’s negotiations with its creditors and ongoing questions about the date of a US rate increase in light of recent weak US data and Wednesday’s FOMC statement.
GBP/AUD: Currently trading at 1.9380
Last week saw the pound gradually regain its recent losses with the rate climbing back up to nearer the 1.94 mark on Friday.
A positive result from this morning’s UK Industrial Order Expectations may see sterling strengthen. With RBA Gov Glenn Stevens speaking later tonight, we are likely to see some volatility as he is expected to comment on last week’s AUD CPI data. Tomorrow the UK will announce Preliminary GDP data, which could have an immediate effect on the market following an unexpected result, especially as investors will be scrutinizing data in light of the nearing election.
GBP/NZD: Currently trading at 1.9931
The kiwi hit 2.00 last Friday as the markets continued to adjust to disappointing data from both the US and New Zealand. New Zealand last week saw m/m visitor arrivals decreasing 3.6% and y/y credit card spending increasing by 5.2%, slightly less than the previous month’s y/y increase of 5.8%.
This morning’s UK CBI Industrial Order Expectations results may leave room for the pound to gain further ground against the kiwi. Looking ahead, no new data is expected from New Zealand today, so the focus will be on tomorrow night’s (11:45BST) trade balance announcement, forecast to increase to 312M from last month’s 50M. Data indicating strong New Zealand exports may see the kiwi strengthen.
GBP/CAD: Currently trading at 1.8454
On Friday the pound unexpectedly gained more than a cent leading up to the day’s sole data release. Governor Poloz spoke in the afternoon, with a view that the damage from a drop in oil prices will disappear in the second half of the year.
With a quiet calendar to start the week, investors will already be looking ahead to tomorrow with UK GDP Preliminary data in the early session, followed by a speech from Governor Poloz in the afternoon. With this in mind, we don’t expect to see much change today.
This blog is prepared by Caxton FX Ltd for information purposes only and may contain personal views that are not the opinion of the company. This is not an offer to purchase or sell any security or an investment advertisement. Caxton FX Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, although foreign exchange transactions with Caxton FX are regulated by HM Revenue and Customs. This email does not constitute advice for any foreign exchange transaction, nor is it intended as a solicitation for funds or recommendation to trade.
Subscribe to our morning, weekly or monthly reports here and make sure you never miss an update: https://www.caxtonfx.com/currency-banking/the-caxton-account#Free-currency-reports
Friday, 24 April 2015
Dollar weakness triggers a stock surge
Nicholas Ebisch, FX Analyst
Equity investors in the US have long feared the inevitable first interest rate rise, and have been cautious with investment over the last few months as a June rate rise was appearing more and more likely. Now that poor U.S. data has pushed expectations of an interest rate rise back from June, further into 2015, the dollar has weakened and equities have surged in the US, Asia, and Europe this morning. US equity indexes had a very good day, with the NASDAQ hitting another historical record high, and the Dow Jones Industrial Index gaining over 100 points during the session. Today, we look to the Eurogroup meetings for any information regarding the impending Greek debt crisis, and US core durable goods orders later in the day.
GBP/EUR: Currently trading at 1.3909
Yesterday saw the euro strengthening against the pound despite weak data from both parties, with German and French Manufacturing and Services PMI data and UK retail sails all failing to meet forecasts. The results of the German Ifo Business Climate survey came in slightly higher than forecast this morning, with some fluctuations in the rate as markets digest this and yesterday’s data.
With no additional eurozone or UK data on the agenda, the main movers for this pairing will be the outcome of the day’s Eurogroup meetings, though a deal with Greece remains unlikely. We can expect some volatility from the euro as a result.
GBP/USD: Currently trading at 1.5130
Disappointing retail sales saw sterling dip in the morning, though it quickly rebounded. After worse-than-expected US data, including unemployment claims, manufacturing PMI, and new home sales, the pound continued to gain against a weakened dollar, climbing back above the 1.50 mark. The rate broke 1.51 this morning in light of the weak data and their potential effect on a future rate increase.
As there is no UK data to be released today, attention will be on the release of US m/m Core Durable Goods Orders (13:30), forecast to be up 0.2%. Given that recent US data has been disappointing, a positive result may see the greenback strengthen.
EUR/USD: Currently trading at 1.0878
The euro managed to gain against the greenback yesterday afternoon following a string of poor US data, including weekly unemployment claims, manufacturing PMI and new home sales figures, all disappointing. This morning’s early trading session has continued to see euro gains as the market digests yesterday’s news, coupled with a better than expected German Ifo Business climate index, which has pushed the pairing towards the 1.09 mark.
No Greek resolution is expected to be announced from today’s Eurogroup meetings, so we could continue to see euro gains for the rest of the morning. Later on at lunchtime sees US core durable goods order figures forecast to improve by 0.2%, so we could see the greenback regain some of its lost ground.
GBP/AUD: Currently trading at 1.9397
Following the unexpected decline of UK retail sales yesterday morning followed by the announcement that US New home sales dropped 11.4% to a 4-month low, we saw the rate trade range-bound between 1.931- 1.945 as investors digested this information.
With no data scheduled for release today, investors will be looking towards RBA Gov Stevens comments late on Monday. We expect next week to provide some volatility as speculation surrounding the general election ramps up.
GBP/NZD: Currently trading at 2.000
Yesterday remained fairly quiet as we saw range-bound activity with little gains made in either direction. The pound has been able to capitalise on a faltering Kiwi this morning as the effects from weak US new homes data yesterday ripple through the market.
With a quiet calendar today, investors will look towards the release of New Zealand’s trade balance next Tuesday and the UK’s upcoming election in two weeks’ time.
GBP/CAD: Currently trading at 1.8337
A disappointing Retail Sales release from the UK set the tone for the day, weakening the pound right up to closing. Sales declined by 0.5 per cent in March.
The pound has started a recovery mission this morning, clawing back most of the losses from yesterday’s session. The focus for today will be on Governor Poloz, who will be speaking at 15:30pm. This form of data usually brings with it volatility. A downside risk is expected in the afternoon session.
This blog is prepared by Caxton FX Ltd for information purposes only and may contain personal views that are not the opinion of the company. This is not an offer to purchase or sell any security or an investment advertisement. Caxton FX Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, although foreign exchange transactions with Caxton FX are regulated by HM Revenue and Customs. This email does not constitute advice for any foreign exchange transaction, nor is it intended as a solicitation for funds or recommendation to trade.
Subscribe to our morning, weekly or monthly reports here and make sure you never miss an update: https://www.caxtonfx.com/currency-banking/the-caxton-account#Free-currency-reports
Equity investors in the US have long feared the inevitable first interest rate rise, and have been cautious with investment over the last few months as a June rate rise was appearing more and more likely. Now that poor U.S. data has pushed expectations of an interest rate rise back from June, further into 2015, the dollar has weakened and equities have surged in the US, Asia, and Europe this morning. US equity indexes had a very good day, with the NASDAQ hitting another historical record high, and the Dow Jones Industrial Index gaining over 100 points during the session. Today, we look to the Eurogroup meetings for any information regarding the impending Greek debt crisis, and US core durable goods orders later in the day.
GBP/EUR: Currently trading at 1.3909
Yesterday saw the euro strengthening against the pound despite weak data from both parties, with German and French Manufacturing and Services PMI data and UK retail sails all failing to meet forecasts. The results of the German Ifo Business Climate survey came in slightly higher than forecast this morning, with some fluctuations in the rate as markets digest this and yesterday’s data.
With no additional eurozone or UK data on the agenda, the main movers for this pairing will be the outcome of the day’s Eurogroup meetings, though a deal with Greece remains unlikely. We can expect some volatility from the euro as a result.
GBP/USD: Currently trading at 1.5130
Disappointing retail sales saw sterling dip in the morning, though it quickly rebounded. After worse-than-expected US data, including unemployment claims, manufacturing PMI, and new home sales, the pound continued to gain against a weakened dollar, climbing back above the 1.50 mark. The rate broke 1.51 this morning in light of the weak data and their potential effect on a future rate increase.
As there is no UK data to be released today, attention will be on the release of US m/m Core Durable Goods Orders (13:30), forecast to be up 0.2%. Given that recent US data has been disappointing, a positive result may see the greenback strengthen.
EUR/USD: Currently trading at 1.0878
The euro managed to gain against the greenback yesterday afternoon following a string of poor US data, including weekly unemployment claims, manufacturing PMI and new home sales figures, all disappointing. This morning’s early trading session has continued to see euro gains as the market digests yesterday’s news, coupled with a better than expected German Ifo Business climate index, which has pushed the pairing towards the 1.09 mark.
No Greek resolution is expected to be announced from today’s Eurogroup meetings, so we could continue to see euro gains for the rest of the morning. Later on at lunchtime sees US core durable goods order figures forecast to improve by 0.2%, so we could see the greenback regain some of its lost ground.
GBP/AUD: Currently trading at 1.9397
Following the unexpected decline of UK retail sales yesterday morning followed by the announcement that US New home sales dropped 11.4% to a 4-month low, we saw the rate trade range-bound between 1.931- 1.945 as investors digested this information.
With no data scheduled for release today, investors will be looking towards RBA Gov Stevens comments late on Monday. We expect next week to provide some volatility as speculation surrounding the general election ramps up.
GBP/NZD: Currently trading at 2.000
Yesterday remained fairly quiet as we saw range-bound activity with little gains made in either direction. The pound has been able to capitalise on a faltering Kiwi this morning as the effects from weak US new homes data yesterday ripple through the market.
With a quiet calendar today, investors will look towards the release of New Zealand’s trade balance next Tuesday and the UK’s upcoming election in two weeks’ time.
GBP/CAD: Currently trading at 1.8337
A disappointing Retail Sales release from the UK set the tone for the day, weakening the pound right up to closing. Sales declined by 0.5 per cent in March.
The pound has started a recovery mission this morning, clawing back most of the losses from yesterday’s session. The focus for today will be on Governor Poloz, who will be speaking at 15:30pm. This form of data usually brings with it volatility. A downside risk is expected in the afternoon session.
This blog is prepared by Caxton FX Ltd for information purposes only and may contain personal views that are not the opinion of the company. This is not an offer to purchase or sell any security or an investment advertisement. Caxton FX Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, although foreign exchange transactions with Caxton FX are regulated by HM Revenue and Customs. This email does not constitute advice for any foreign exchange transaction, nor is it intended as a solicitation for funds or recommendation to trade.
Subscribe to our morning, weekly or monthly reports here and make sure you never miss an update: https://www.caxtonfx.com/currency-banking/the-caxton-account#Free-currency-reports
Thursday, 23 April 2015
Sterling rally over as retail sales disappoin
Edward Knox, FX Analyst
We have already witnessed a flurry of activity in the euro zone this morning with the release of Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI data from the euro zones two power houses France and Germany. The releases, although not catastrophic, came in below market expectation and have the ability to undermine confidence in the single currency today. Elsewhere the UK Retail Sales figure was released (09:30). The figure disappointed coming in at -0.5%. As the first serious economic release from the UK all week traders have used it as a signal to sell sterling. US Unemployment Claims follow this at 13:30 and will provide further insight into the strength of the US economy. A good result here will play into the hands of dollar bulls expecting an interest rate hike in the States.
GBP/EUR: Currently trading at 1.4025
The pound strengthened yesterday, reaching 1.40 for the first time since mid-March, and has maintained that strength into the morning session. Yesterday’s MPC meeting notes were slightly hawkish on inflation and interest rates. Eurozone data released so far today, including Manufacturing PMI, has been weaker than expected. However, disappointing UK retail sales have seen the euro gain against sterling.
With no new data expected this afternoon, the markets will continue to react to this morning’s data and yesterday’s BOE minutes, and look towards tomorrow’s Eurogroup meetings in Riga for the next step in the Greece saga.
GBP/USD: Currently trading at 1.4981
Yesterday was a good day for cable, which broke the 1.50 mark as sterling strengthened after the release of BOE meeting minutes indicated the next change in interest rates may be an increase. The pound’s strength coupled with a weakening dollar in light of the ECB extending emergency liquidity assistance to Greek banks. The greenback has recovered some ground this morning in light of weak UK retail sales.
This afternoon, the US will release Unemployment Claims and New Home Sales data, both expected to increase but less than in the previous month, and Flash Manufacturing PMI, forecasted to decrease from previous to 55.6, so we may see volatility in the pairing.
EUR/USD: Currently trading at 1.0702
The euro momentarily hit 1.08 yesterday, before weakening again throughout the course of the afternoon. Further woes greeted the euro this morning, with French and German Flash manufacturing PMI figures and Spanish unemployment data all disappointing, putting further pressure on the shared currency in anticipation of tomorrow’s important Eurogroup meetings.
Later on in the afternoon sees weekly US unemployment claims and new home sales figures, which may cause a stir in the pairing if the readings don’t come in as forecast. However, we expect to see euro weakness for most of the day as tomorrow’s Eurogroup meetings weigh in on the pairing.
GBP/AUD: Currently trading at 1.9368
Yesterday saw the pound regain its recent losses following the release of the Bank of England’s latest policy meeting minutes yesterday morning. Comments suggested that the board expect inflation to rebound faster than expected and therefore the next rate move is likely to be an increase. This news sent the rate into an upwards trend that continued throughout the course of the day, peaking at 1.9420.
We expect to see some added volatility today following the release of weaker-than-forecast UK retail sales. This has seen the upward trend halted.
GBP/NZD: Currently trading at 1.9796
The pound continued to climb against the Kiwi yesterday as the upbeat Bank of England comments emerged, suggesting that a rate hike could be on the horizon. This news saw the rate surpass the 1.97 mark. The kiwi took another hit late last night following the dovish comments of RBNZ Governor Mcdermott, which revealed that an increase in interest rates is not being considered at present.
Combined with Gov Mcdermott’s comments, the drop in UK retail sales this morning could provide a much needed let off for the dollar.
GBP/CAD: Currently trading at 1.8360
The pound strengthened against its counterparts yesterday after the Bank of England released its minutes showing members had voted to keep interest rates at a record low. Investors used yesterday’s conversation minutes to build a better understanding regarding policy before the up and coming election.
Today’s key driver is UK Retail Sales Figures, which saw a decrease in sales from previous. This could put pressure on the pound and provide the loonie with support.
This blog is prepared by Caxton FX Ltd for information purposes only and may contain personal views that are not the opinion of the company. This is not an offer to purchase or sell any security or an investment advertisement. Caxton FX Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, although foreign exchange transactions with Caxton FX are regulated by HM Revenue and Customs. This email does not constitute advice for any foreign exchange transaction, nor is it intended as a solicitation for funds or recommendation to trade.
Subscribe to our morning, weekly or monthly reports here and make sure you never miss an update: https://www.caxtonfx.com/currency-banking/the-caxton-account#Free-currency-reports
We have already witnessed a flurry of activity in the euro zone this morning with the release of Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI data from the euro zones two power houses France and Germany. The releases, although not catastrophic, came in below market expectation and have the ability to undermine confidence in the single currency today. Elsewhere the UK Retail Sales figure was released (09:30). The figure disappointed coming in at -0.5%. As the first serious economic release from the UK all week traders have used it as a signal to sell sterling. US Unemployment Claims follow this at 13:30 and will provide further insight into the strength of the US economy. A good result here will play into the hands of dollar bulls expecting an interest rate hike in the States.
GBP/EUR: Currently trading at 1.4025
The pound strengthened yesterday, reaching 1.40 for the first time since mid-March, and has maintained that strength into the morning session. Yesterday’s MPC meeting notes were slightly hawkish on inflation and interest rates. Eurozone data released so far today, including Manufacturing PMI, has been weaker than expected. However, disappointing UK retail sales have seen the euro gain against sterling.
With no new data expected this afternoon, the markets will continue to react to this morning’s data and yesterday’s BOE minutes, and look towards tomorrow’s Eurogroup meetings in Riga for the next step in the Greece saga.
GBP/USD: Currently trading at 1.4981
Yesterday was a good day for cable, which broke the 1.50 mark as sterling strengthened after the release of BOE meeting minutes indicated the next change in interest rates may be an increase. The pound’s strength coupled with a weakening dollar in light of the ECB extending emergency liquidity assistance to Greek banks. The greenback has recovered some ground this morning in light of weak UK retail sales.
This afternoon, the US will release Unemployment Claims and New Home Sales data, both expected to increase but less than in the previous month, and Flash Manufacturing PMI, forecasted to decrease from previous to 55.6, so we may see volatility in the pairing.
EUR/USD: Currently trading at 1.0702
The euro momentarily hit 1.08 yesterday, before weakening again throughout the course of the afternoon. Further woes greeted the euro this morning, with French and German Flash manufacturing PMI figures and Spanish unemployment data all disappointing, putting further pressure on the shared currency in anticipation of tomorrow’s important Eurogroup meetings.
Later on in the afternoon sees weekly US unemployment claims and new home sales figures, which may cause a stir in the pairing if the readings don’t come in as forecast. However, we expect to see euro weakness for most of the day as tomorrow’s Eurogroup meetings weigh in on the pairing.
GBP/AUD: Currently trading at 1.9368
Yesterday saw the pound regain its recent losses following the release of the Bank of England’s latest policy meeting minutes yesterday morning. Comments suggested that the board expect inflation to rebound faster than expected and therefore the next rate move is likely to be an increase. This news sent the rate into an upwards trend that continued throughout the course of the day, peaking at 1.9420.
We expect to see some added volatility today following the release of weaker-than-forecast UK retail sales. This has seen the upward trend halted.
GBP/NZD: Currently trading at 1.9796
The pound continued to climb against the Kiwi yesterday as the upbeat Bank of England comments emerged, suggesting that a rate hike could be on the horizon. This news saw the rate surpass the 1.97 mark. The kiwi took another hit late last night following the dovish comments of RBNZ Governor Mcdermott, which revealed that an increase in interest rates is not being considered at present.
Combined with Gov Mcdermott’s comments, the drop in UK retail sales this morning could provide a much needed let off for the dollar.
GBP/CAD: Currently trading at 1.8360
The pound strengthened against its counterparts yesterday after the Bank of England released its minutes showing members had voted to keep interest rates at a record low. Investors used yesterday’s conversation minutes to build a better understanding regarding policy before the up and coming election.
Today’s key driver is UK Retail Sales Figures, which saw a decrease in sales from previous. This could put pressure on the pound and provide the loonie with support.
This blog is prepared by Caxton FX Ltd for information purposes only and may contain personal views that are not the opinion of the company. This is not an offer to purchase or sell any security or an investment advertisement. Caxton FX Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, although foreign exchange transactions with Caxton FX are regulated by HM Revenue and Customs. This email does not constitute advice for any foreign exchange transaction, nor is it intended as a solicitation for funds or recommendation to trade.
Subscribe to our morning, weekly or monthly reports here and make sure you never miss an update: https://www.caxtonfx.com/currency-banking/the-caxton-account#Free-currency-reports
Wednesday, 22 April 2015
Quiet day to be steered by MPC Votes
Edward Knox, FX Analyst
Data from the UK this week has so far been very thin on the ground, and today brings the first serious release in the form of the Monetary Policy Committee’s Official Bank Rate Votes. Of course as we stand it is highly improbable that any member of the MPC will see fit to raise interest rates but traders will be eyeing the result closely and any sign of a policy member voting for an interest rate hike will see the pound backed. We will have to wait until tomorrow for any further scheduled high impact data so the currency markets are likely to take their lead today on any developments on the markets main focus which is the Greek debt saga.
GBP/EUR: Currently trading at 1.3894
Sterling rallied against the euro in the morning, while the afternoon session saw the euro recover some ground. The main data release affecting the pairing was the results of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey, lower than forecast at 53.3, and of the overall ZEW Economic sentiment, higher than forecast at 64.8.
This morning sees the results of the MPC votes. The rest of the day looks fairly quiet for UK and euro data, so fluctuations will most likely stem from ongoing uncertainties about Greece’s situation and the upcoming UK election. Looking ahead to the morning, France and Germany will both release Flash Manufacturing PMI, both forecasted to increase, which may give the euro room to make further gains against the pound in the morning.
GBP/USD: Currently trading at 1.4937
With no major UK or US data out yesterday, the pound made some gains against a weakening dollar over the course of the day, with the rate increasing nearly a cent in the early afternoon before settling around 1.493 overnight.
This morning sees the result of the MPC Official Bank Rate Votes and the MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes, both expected to remain at 0-0-9 in favour of holding rates. The US announces existing home sales this afternoon, forecast to increase to 5.04M, and Crude Oil inventories, forecasted to increase to 2.7M. Sterling may continue to strengthen against the dollar in the morning, and the US’s afternoon data may give the dollar a chance to regain some ground.
EUR/USD: Currently trading at 1.0751
The ZEW German economic sentiment survey underperformed yesterday, failing to relieve the shared currency. Euro gains were seen in the afternoon, however, partly due to more optimistic outlooks of a Greece-related deal being reached by the end of April.
Another quiet day awaits us today, with the potential of existing home sale figures and crude oil inventories from the US later on in the afternoon causing a stir in the pairing should they fall out of line with expectations.
GBP/AUD: Currently trading at 1.9210
In the overnight session, the Aussie gained against the pound following the release of better than forecast AUD CPI data last night sparking an imminent policy change by the RBA to hold off a rate cut. The news saw the rate fall to 1.922 before meeting resistance this morning.
With a quiet calendar today, the focus turns to the political risks associated with the general election. With the likelihood of a hung parliament increasing, we could see the pound fall further against the Aussie.
GBP/NZD: Currently trading at 1.9391
Overnight the Kiwi dollar has followed the Australian dollar and strengthened against Sterling. This is on the back of forecast-beating CPI data coming out of Australia, which has dampened any expectations of a rate cut.
Today attention will be on the MPC official bank rate vote (09:30). With inflation still at zero for the UK economy, it is highly unlikely that there will be any members voting for a rate rise. However, if there is a change and some members vote for a rate reduction to try and stimulate the economy and raise inflation, expect some Sterling weakness and further Kiwi dollar gains over the course of the day.
GBP/CAD: Currently trading at 1.8334
The loonie weakened in yesterday’s session as Canadian Wholesale Sales declined for a second consecutive month, decreasing 0.4 per cent in February.
Today brings a relatively quiet calendar, with the only release being the MPC Bank Rate votes from the UK, which we expect will remain unchanged. We therefore don’t anticipate much change today, with activity moving within a range.
This blog is prepared by Caxton FX Ltd for information purposes only and may contain personal views that are not the opinion of the company. This is not an offer to purchase or sell any security or an investment advertisement. Caxton FX Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, although foreign exchange transactions with Caxton FX are regulated by HM Revenue and Customs. This email does not constitute advice for any foreign exchange transaction, nor is it intended as a solicitation for funds or recommendation to trade.
Subscribe to our morning, weekly or monthly reports here and make sure you never miss an update: https://www.caxtonfx.com/currency-banking/the-caxton-account#Free-currency-reports
Data from the UK this week has so far been very thin on the ground, and today brings the first serious release in the form of the Monetary Policy Committee’s Official Bank Rate Votes. Of course as we stand it is highly improbable that any member of the MPC will see fit to raise interest rates but traders will be eyeing the result closely and any sign of a policy member voting for an interest rate hike will see the pound backed. We will have to wait until tomorrow for any further scheduled high impact data so the currency markets are likely to take their lead today on any developments on the markets main focus which is the Greek debt saga.
GBP/EUR: Currently trading at 1.3894
Sterling rallied against the euro in the morning, while the afternoon session saw the euro recover some ground. The main data release affecting the pairing was the results of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey, lower than forecast at 53.3, and of the overall ZEW Economic sentiment, higher than forecast at 64.8.
This morning sees the results of the MPC votes. The rest of the day looks fairly quiet for UK and euro data, so fluctuations will most likely stem from ongoing uncertainties about Greece’s situation and the upcoming UK election. Looking ahead to the morning, France and Germany will both release Flash Manufacturing PMI, both forecasted to increase, which may give the euro room to make further gains against the pound in the morning.
GBP/USD: Currently trading at 1.4937
With no major UK or US data out yesterday, the pound made some gains against a weakening dollar over the course of the day, with the rate increasing nearly a cent in the early afternoon before settling around 1.493 overnight.
This morning sees the result of the MPC Official Bank Rate Votes and the MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes, both expected to remain at 0-0-9 in favour of holding rates. The US announces existing home sales this afternoon, forecast to increase to 5.04M, and Crude Oil inventories, forecasted to increase to 2.7M. Sterling may continue to strengthen against the dollar in the morning, and the US’s afternoon data may give the dollar a chance to regain some ground.
EUR/USD: Currently trading at 1.0751
The ZEW German economic sentiment survey underperformed yesterday, failing to relieve the shared currency. Euro gains were seen in the afternoon, however, partly due to more optimistic outlooks of a Greece-related deal being reached by the end of April.
Another quiet day awaits us today, with the potential of existing home sale figures and crude oil inventories from the US later on in the afternoon causing a stir in the pairing should they fall out of line with expectations.
GBP/AUD: Currently trading at 1.9210
In the overnight session, the Aussie gained against the pound following the release of better than forecast AUD CPI data last night sparking an imminent policy change by the RBA to hold off a rate cut. The news saw the rate fall to 1.922 before meeting resistance this morning.
With a quiet calendar today, the focus turns to the political risks associated with the general election. With the likelihood of a hung parliament increasing, we could see the pound fall further against the Aussie.
GBP/NZD: Currently trading at 1.9391
Overnight the Kiwi dollar has followed the Australian dollar and strengthened against Sterling. This is on the back of forecast-beating CPI data coming out of Australia, which has dampened any expectations of a rate cut.
Today attention will be on the MPC official bank rate vote (09:30). With inflation still at zero for the UK economy, it is highly unlikely that there will be any members voting for a rate rise. However, if there is a change and some members vote for a rate reduction to try and stimulate the economy and raise inflation, expect some Sterling weakness and further Kiwi dollar gains over the course of the day.
GBP/CAD: Currently trading at 1.8334
The loonie weakened in yesterday’s session as Canadian Wholesale Sales declined for a second consecutive month, decreasing 0.4 per cent in February.
Today brings a relatively quiet calendar, with the only release being the MPC Bank Rate votes from the UK, which we expect will remain unchanged. We therefore don’t anticipate much change today, with activity moving within a range.
This blog is prepared by Caxton FX Ltd for information purposes only and may contain personal views that are not the opinion of the company. This is not an offer to purchase or sell any security or an investment advertisement. Caxton FX Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, although foreign exchange transactions with Caxton FX are regulated by HM Revenue and Customs. This email does not constitute advice for any foreign exchange transaction, nor is it intended as a solicitation for funds or recommendation to trade.
Subscribe to our morning, weekly or monthly reports here and make sure you never miss an update: https://www.caxtonfx.com/currency-banking/the-caxton-account#Free-currency-reports
Tuesday, 21 April 2015
Dollar rebounds and strengthens overnight
Nicholas Ebisch, FX Analyst
The US dollar has been appreciating steadily throughout yesterday’s session and overnight as a result of little more than recovering losses from last week. Traders will be looking toward data later in the week to gauge how strong or weak the dollar will become. The dollar has been struggling to find its real value as economic data has been varied and Federal Reserve officials are sending mixed signals lately. Australia’s central bank meeting minutes were released yesterday, which indicated that the RBA may cut interest rates yet again as soon as its May meeting, which weakened the Aussie during overnight trading. Today will see the release of German ZEW Economic Sentiment data released at 10:00 A.M., as well as Canadian Wholesale Sales m/m this afternoon.
GBP/EUR: Currently trading at 1.39394
Yesterday saw range-bound trading for this pairing, with no data of any real significance released. GBP/EUR closed at 1.3856, just 10 points below where it opened.
Today attention will be on the German ZEW economic statement (10:00). This release is expected to be an improvement from last month, with German growth being driven by falling oil prices and a weak euro. We may see some advances from the single currency if this release comes in as expected. However, these gains may be limited by the increased concern over a Greek default, with obligations totalling 3 billion euros due for the next 15 days.
GBP/USD: Currently trading at 1.487741
With no major data released from the UK or the US yesterday, the dollar regained some of the ground it lost against the pound last week. The rate decreased roughly half a cent over the course of the day.
Today will be another quiet day for US and UK data, so look to the continued influence of recent mixed US data and uncertainties about the upcoming UK elections to affect today’s market movement, which may remain range-bound.
EUR/USD: Currently trading at 1.06736
A very quiet day yesterday resulted in limited activity with the pairing seeing range bound movement throughout the day. Weakness has greeted the euro this morning, however, with continued speculation over Greece, as the ECB has stated it expects to see curbs in the absence of Greek reform progress, plunging the pairing below the 1.07 mark. Another quiet day in terms of announcements is expected today, with the most important data release coming in the form of the ZEW German economic sentiment survey at 10am, which is forecast to improve. Despite this, we expect to see continued euro weakness amidst increasing concern over Greece’s place in the eurozone.
GBP/AUD: Currently trading at 1.92904
As RBA Governor Stevens expressed a willingness to cut interest rates further in his speech yesterday, combined with the hawkish nature of the RBA meeting minutes, we saw the aussie tumble, losing almost 2 cents against the pound by 01:00 this morning before settling around the 1.93 mark.
With no UK data expected today, investors will be looking towards AUD CPI released later tonight, forecast to gain 0.1%, which could provide some resistance to the sterling gains.
GBP/NZD: Currently trading at 1.93752
The kiwi dollar followed the aussie dollar lower last night as the Reserve Bank of Australia reiterated that an interest rate cut was on the table. This followed a souring in market sentiment towards the Chinese stimulus announced over the weekend and meant that the kiwi dollar struggled for any upward momentum.
The opening of the UK markets this morning has seen the pound lose its overnight gains and sterling could struggle with the absence of any significant domestic data today. The softening of investor demand in the pound in the lead up to the election won’t help either.
GBP/CAD: Currently trading at 1.82494
Yesterday we saw the rate move within a range, with the pound losing ground before rebounding throughout the afternoon session. Governor Poloz signalled that another rate cut is off the cards and feels that a better-than-expected US growth pattern could be a risk that may affect Canada’s progression.
Today the focus will be on Canadian Wholesale figures, released at 1.30pm. A 0.2 per cent increase is predicted, which means we could see the loonie strengthen in today’s session.
This email is prepared by Caxton FX Ltd for information purposes only and may contain personal views that are not the opinion of the company. This is not an offer to purchase or sell any security or an investment advertisement. Caxton FX Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, although foreign exchange transactions with Caxton FX are regulated by HM Revenue and Customs. This email does not constitute advice for any foreign exchange transaction, nor is it intended as a solicitation for funds or recommendation to trade.
Subscribe to our morning, weekly or monthly reports here and make sure you never miss an update: https://www.caxtonfx.com/currency-banking/the-caxton-account#Free-currency-reports
The US dollar has been appreciating steadily throughout yesterday’s session and overnight as a result of little more than recovering losses from last week. Traders will be looking toward data later in the week to gauge how strong or weak the dollar will become. The dollar has been struggling to find its real value as economic data has been varied and Federal Reserve officials are sending mixed signals lately. Australia’s central bank meeting minutes were released yesterday, which indicated that the RBA may cut interest rates yet again as soon as its May meeting, which weakened the Aussie during overnight trading. Today will see the release of German ZEW Economic Sentiment data released at 10:00 A.M., as well as Canadian Wholesale Sales m/m this afternoon.
GBP/EUR: Currently trading at 1.39394
Yesterday saw range-bound trading for this pairing, with no data of any real significance released. GBP/EUR closed at 1.3856, just 10 points below where it opened.
Today attention will be on the German ZEW economic statement (10:00). This release is expected to be an improvement from last month, with German growth being driven by falling oil prices and a weak euro. We may see some advances from the single currency if this release comes in as expected. However, these gains may be limited by the increased concern over a Greek default, with obligations totalling 3 billion euros due for the next 15 days.
GBP/USD: Currently trading at 1.487741
With no major data released from the UK or the US yesterday, the dollar regained some of the ground it lost against the pound last week. The rate decreased roughly half a cent over the course of the day.
Today will be another quiet day for US and UK data, so look to the continued influence of recent mixed US data and uncertainties about the upcoming UK elections to affect today’s market movement, which may remain range-bound.
EUR/USD: Currently trading at 1.06736
A very quiet day yesterday resulted in limited activity with the pairing seeing range bound movement throughout the day. Weakness has greeted the euro this morning, however, with continued speculation over Greece, as the ECB has stated it expects to see curbs in the absence of Greek reform progress, plunging the pairing below the 1.07 mark. Another quiet day in terms of announcements is expected today, with the most important data release coming in the form of the ZEW German economic sentiment survey at 10am, which is forecast to improve. Despite this, we expect to see continued euro weakness amidst increasing concern over Greece’s place in the eurozone.
GBP/AUD: Currently trading at 1.92904
As RBA Governor Stevens expressed a willingness to cut interest rates further in his speech yesterday, combined with the hawkish nature of the RBA meeting minutes, we saw the aussie tumble, losing almost 2 cents against the pound by 01:00 this morning before settling around the 1.93 mark.
With no UK data expected today, investors will be looking towards AUD CPI released later tonight, forecast to gain 0.1%, which could provide some resistance to the sterling gains.
GBP/NZD: Currently trading at 1.93752
The kiwi dollar followed the aussie dollar lower last night as the Reserve Bank of Australia reiterated that an interest rate cut was on the table. This followed a souring in market sentiment towards the Chinese stimulus announced over the weekend and meant that the kiwi dollar struggled for any upward momentum.
The opening of the UK markets this morning has seen the pound lose its overnight gains and sterling could struggle with the absence of any significant domestic data today. The softening of investor demand in the pound in the lead up to the election won’t help either.
GBP/CAD: Currently trading at 1.82494
Yesterday we saw the rate move within a range, with the pound losing ground before rebounding throughout the afternoon session. Governor Poloz signalled that another rate cut is off the cards and feels that a better-than-expected US growth pattern could be a risk that may affect Canada’s progression.
Today the focus will be on Canadian Wholesale figures, released at 1.30pm. A 0.2 per cent increase is predicted, which means we could see the loonie strengthen in today’s session.
This email is prepared by Caxton FX Ltd for information purposes only and may contain personal views that are not the opinion of the company. This is not an offer to purchase or sell any security or an investment advertisement. Caxton FX Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, although foreign exchange transactions with Caxton FX are regulated by HM Revenue and Customs. This email does not constitute advice for any foreign exchange transaction, nor is it intended as a solicitation for funds or recommendation to trade.
Subscribe to our morning, weekly or monthly reports here and make sure you never miss an update: https://www.caxtonfx.com/currency-banking/the-caxton-account#Free-currency-reports
Monday, 20 April 2015
Sterling stable with 17 days to election
Nicholas Ebisch, FX Analyst
The Conservatives and Labour are neck and neck tied at 34% according to the latest BBC poll, the questions now almost without a doubt becomes, ‘which parties will band together to form a majority government’? Sterling has been steady so far throughout the election season with minimal volatility. However, with just over two weeks to go, we may see some unease in the UK currency as we approach the big Election Day. Later on today, the governors of the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia will be speaking at separate engagements. Overnight tonight, the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will be released from the Australian central bank’s latest meeting. The Australian dollar and Canadian dollar have staged a comeback in the last few months as commodity prices have stabilized.
GBP/EUR: Currently trading at 1.3866
Friday morning saw the UK Jobless rate fall to its lowest level since 2008. Followed by a negative release for CPI in the Eurozone, Sterling managed to make some gains in the morning, with a peak of 1.3937 for the day.
The main release for this pairing today is the German Buba Monthly report (11:00). With a pickup in economic conditions in Europe, a hawkish release here could see some gains for the single currency. However, if there is continued uncertainty over the Greek situation, these gains may be limited.
GBP/USD: Currently trading at 1.49555
Friday saw the UK’s unemployment rate decreasing as forecasted to 5.6%, its lowest rate since July 2008, and the claimant count decreasing by 20.7K, less than forecasted but enough to reach a 40-year low. The US m/m CPI and Core CPI remained at 0.2% as expected. Friday saw the pound strengthen in the morning, peaking around 1.50465, and the dollar gained back some of that ground over the course of the afternoon.
The agenda for today is fairly quiet, with no major data expected out of the UK or the US. The rate may remain range-bound as a result.
EUR/USD: Currently trading at 1.0783
Friday morning continued to see gains for the euro, before its advance was halted in the afternoon on the back of CPI figures coming line with expectations and a positive consumer sentiment figure from the US.
Today sees a quiet day for the pairing as there are no announcements scheduled from both sides of the Atlantic. We may see some euro weakness however, in anticipation of Friday’s crucial decision regarding Greece’s future in the Euro-zone.
GBP/AUD: Currently trading at 1.9167
The second half of last week saw a 3 cent gain for the Aussie as the pairing closed out for the week at 1.918. With a very quiet UK economic calendar this week, any market movement will be largely dictated by RBA Gov Stevens comments later today and CPI figures this Wednesday. As we approach the end of the month, we expect general election speculation to ramp up which historically has had a negative effect on the pound.
GBP/NZD: Currently trading at 1.9380
New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index data was released overnight during the Asian session and showed a slight drop from the previous month to -0.3%. This figure was by no means disastrous and was largely in line with market expectations. Perhaps of more significance was the decision by China’s central bank to support growth by cutting the amount of cash that lenders must hold as reserves. This should help keep liquidity stable in the world’s second largest economy and the New Zealand dollar has benefitted on this news.
Sterling data is thin on the ground today so the kiwi dollar should be able to hold on to its gains until the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor Stevens speaks at 17:30 this afternoon.
GBP/CAD: Currently trading at 1.8249
On Friday we learnt that UK unemployment fell to its lowest rate since July 2008, coming in line with forecasts at 5.6 per cent. This news bolstered the pound and made it hard for the loonie to take hold, even after strong figures were released from Canada. CPI improved by 0.6 per cent and Retail sales grew by 2 per cent.
Today Governor Poloz speaks at 15:05pm, which will provide onlookers with a better understanding regarding policy. The activity will be quiet up until that point, after which we expect to see some volatility.
This blog is prepared by Caxton FX Ltd for information purposes only and may contain personal views that are not the opinion of the company. This is not an offer to purchase or sell any security or an investment advertisement. Caxton FX Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, although foreign exchange transactions with Caxton FX are regulated by HM Revenue and Customs. This email does not constitute advice for any foreign exchange transaction, nor is it intended as a solicitation for funds or recommendation to trade.
Subscribe to our morning, weekly or monthly reports here and make sure you never miss an update: https://www.caxtonfx.com/currency-banking/the-caxton-account#Free-currency-reports
The Conservatives and Labour are neck and neck tied at 34% according to the latest BBC poll, the questions now almost without a doubt becomes, ‘which parties will band together to form a majority government’? Sterling has been steady so far throughout the election season with minimal volatility. However, with just over two weeks to go, we may see some unease in the UK currency as we approach the big Election Day. Later on today, the governors of the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia will be speaking at separate engagements. Overnight tonight, the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will be released from the Australian central bank’s latest meeting. The Australian dollar and Canadian dollar have staged a comeback in the last few months as commodity prices have stabilized.
GBP/EUR: Currently trading at 1.3866
Friday morning saw the UK Jobless rate fall to its lowest level since 2008. Followed by a negative release for CPI in the Eurozone, Sterling managed to make some gains in the morning, with a peak of 1.3937 for the day.
The main release for this pairing today is the German Buba Monthly report (11:00). With a pickup in economic conditions in Europe, a hawkish release here could see some gains for the single currency. However, if there is continued uncertainty over the Greek situation, these gains may be limited.
GBP/USD: Currently trading at 1.49555
Friday saw the UK’s unemployment rate decreasing as forecasted to 5.6%, its lowest rate since July 2008, and the claimant count decreasing by 20.7K, less than forecasted but enough to reach a 40-year low. The US m/m CPI and Core CPI remained at 0.2% as expected. Friday saw the pound strengthen in the morning, peaking around 1.50465, and the dollar gained back some of that ground over the course of the afternoon.
The agenda for today is fairly quiet, with no major data expected out of the UK or the US. The rate may remain range-bound as a result.
EUR/USD: Currently trading at 1.0783
Friday morning continued to see gains for the euro, before its advance was halted in the afternoon on the back of CPI figures coming line with expectations and a positive consumer sentiment figure from the US.
Today sees a quiet day for the pairing as there are no announcements scheduled from both sides of the Atlantic. We may see some euro weakness however, in anticipation of Friday’s crucial decision regarding Greece’s future in the Euro-zone.
GBP/AUD: Currently trading at 1.9167
The second half of last week saw a 3 cent gain for the Aussie as the pairing closed out for the week at 1.918. With a very quiet UK economic calendar this week, any market movement will be largely dictated by RBA Gov Stevens comments later today and CPI figures this Wednesday. As we approach the end of the month, we expect general election speculation to ramp up which historically has had a negative effect on the pound.
GBP/NZD: Currently trading at 1.9380
New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index data was released overnight during the Asian session and showed a slight drop from the previous month to -0.3%. This figure was by no means disastrous and was largely in line with market expectations. Perhaps of more significance was the decision by China’s central bank to support growth by cutting the amount of cash that lenders must hold as reserves. This should help keep liquidity stable in the world’s second largest economy and the New Zealand dollar has benefitted on this news.
Sterling data is thin on the ground today so the kiwi dollar should be able to hold on to its gains until the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor Stevens speaks at 17:30 this afternoon.
GBP/CAD: Currently trading at 1.8249
On Friday we learnt that UK unemployment fell to its lowest rate since July 2008, coming in line with forecasts at 5.6 per cent. This news bolstered the pound and made it hard for the loonie to take hold, even after strong figures were released from Canada. CPI improved by 0.6 per cent and Retail sales grew by 2 per cent.
Today Governor Poloz speaks at 15:05pm, which will provide onlookers with a better understanding regarding policy. The activity will be quiet up until that point, after which we expect to see some volatility.
This blog is prepared by Caxton FX Ltd for information purposes only and may contain personal views that are not the opinion of the company. This is not an offer to purchase or sell any security or an investment advertisement. Caxton FX Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, although foreign exchange transactions with Caxton FX are regulated by HM Revenue and Customs. This email does not constitute advice for any foreign exchange transaction, nor is it intended as a solicitation for funds or recommendation to trade.
Subscribe to our morning, weekly or monthly reports here and make sure you never miss an update: https://www.caxtonfx.com/currency-banking/the-caxton-account#Free-currency-reports
Friday, 17 April 2015
June rate hike unlikely in US
Nicholas Ebisch, FX Analyst
The dollar has started off the day immediately on the back foot. Several members of the Federal Reserve this week spoke to the press and general public commenting that the economic indicators that are necessary for a June rate hike have not been present lately. March hiring in the US was slow, retails sales fell, and home building data was softer than expected. Some dollar weakness during the day, or at least some volatile trading, can be expected as the market comes to terms with these latest comments from Fed members. Meanwhile, this morning will see the release of the Average Earnings Index 3 m/y, claimant count change, and the unemployment rate in the UK. Later, the US will release CPI m/m and core CPI m/m data, as well as consumer sentiment data in the afternoon.
GBP/EUR: Currently trading at - 1.3886
Yesterday this pairing peaked around the 1.3950 mark in the morning. This was likely a result of the further downgrading of Greece’s credit rating, leading to increased uncertainty over a Greek default. The single currency then managed to regain some ground in the afternoon closing at 1.3865. This move may have been a delayed reaction to the optimistic comments from Mario Draghi on Wednesday.
Today attention will be on the UK Average Earnings Index and Claimant Count Change (09:30). This will be followed by Eurozone CPI (10:00). With UK data expected to improve from last month and Eurozone CPI expected to remain negative, Sterling gains could be seen on the back of these releases.
GBP/USD: Currently trading at - 1.5000
Yesterday saw more weak data out of the US. Building permits came in at 1.04M, lower than forecasted and down from the previous month, and the number of Housing Starts increased less than forecasted by 0.02M to 0.93M. Unemployment claims remained under 300K but increased to 294K. In light of recent weak data, last night’s Fed speeches indicated an autumn rate increase might now be more likely. The dollar weakened against the pound yesterday afternoon and has continued to weaken this morning.
Today’s UK data include the results of the Average Earnings Index, forecasted to remain the same at 1.8% and Claimant Count Change, forecasted to decrease 29.0K. The US will release m/m CPI and Core CPI, both expected to remain at 0.2%. Fluctuations in today’s rate will continue as the markets react to the possibility of an autumn US rate increase.
EUR/USD: Currently trading at -1.0795
The euro continued to gain against the dollar yesterday on the back of relatively poor US data followed by US Fed member Lockhart’s uncertain outlook on the US economy, in which he stated that unexpected economic weakness means that it will likely take longer to raise short-term interest rates.
Today sees CPI figures released from both the Euro-zone and the US, so we could see significant market movement should the readings fall out of expectations. Later on in the afternoon the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is released and with the readings set to improve we may see some dollar strength. However we expect to see further euro gains for most of the day as the market digests Lockhart’s comments.
GBP/AUD: Currently trading at – 1.9163
Once the downward trend finally met resistance yesterday morning, the rate remained between 1.91 – 1.92 throughout the remainder of the day despite significant USD weakness.
With UK employments figures set to improve, and US CPI data to follow later on this afternoon, the pairing should see some movement today if figures fall either side of the forecasted level.
GBP/NZD: Currently trading at 1.9450
The kiwi dollar has so far managed to end the week where it began it against the pound, and is currently almost 3 cents higher than its peak on the 13th April.
Sterling investors will be hoping for some positive jobs data from the UK today. The release comes in the form of Average Earnings and Claimant Count Change. Both releases will have an impact on the value of the pound today and a good result would bolster sterling going into the weekend.
GBP/CAD: Currently trading at - 1.8224
We witnessed an early morning rebound by the pound yesterday, after Wednesday’s session saw the loonie surge against the pound due to the BOC latest projections. This battle for recovery did not last long as rising oil prices enabled the loonie to overturn momentum and close the day higher.
Today brings us Core CPI and Core Retail sales data from Canada in the early afternoon. Retail sales is expected to rise by 0.7 per cent and inflation to remain on target. With this in mind we expect the loonie to continue strengthening.
This blog is prepared by Caxton FX Ltd for information purposes only and may contain personal views that are not the opinion of the company. This is not an offer to purchase or sell any security or an investment advertisement. Caxton FX Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, although foreign exchange transactions with Caxton FX are regulated by HM Revenue and Customs. This email does not constitute advice for any foreign exchange transaction, nor is it intended as a solicitation for funds or recommendation to trade.
Subscribe to our morning, weekly or monthly reports here and make sure you never miss an update: https://www.caxtonfx.com/currency-banking/the-caxton-account#Free-currency-reports
The dollar has started off the day immediately on the back foot. Several members of the Federal Reserve this week spoke to the press and general public commenting that the economic indicators that are necessary for a June rate hike have not been present lately. March hiring in the US was slow, retails sales fell, and home building data was softer than expected. Some dollar weakness during the day, or at least some volatile trading, can be expected as the market comes to terms with these latest comments from Fed members. Meanwhile, this morning will see the release of the Average Earnings Index 3 m/y, claimant count change, and the unemployment rate in the UK. Later, the US will release CPI m/m and core CPI m/m data, as well as consumer sentiment data in the afternoon.
GBP/EUR: Currently trading at - 1.3886
Yesterday this pairing peaked around the 1.3950 mark in the morning. This was likely a result of the further downgrading of Greece’s credit rating, leading to increased uncertainty over a Greek default. The single currency then managed to regain some ground in the afternoon closing at 1.3865. This move may have been a delayed reaction to the optimistic comments from Mario Draghi on Wednesday.
Today attention will be on the UK Average Earnings Index and Claimant Count Change (09:30). This will be followed by Eurozone CPI (10:00). With UK data expected to improve from last month and Eurozone CPI expected to remain negative, Sterling gains could be seen on the back of these releases.
GBP/USD: Currently trading at - 1.5000
Yesterday saw more weak data out of the US. Building permits came in at 1.04M, lower than forecasted and down from the previous month, and the number of Housing Starts increased less than forecasted by 0.02M to 0.93M. Unemployment claims remained under 300K but increased to 294K. In light of recent weak data, last night’s Fed speeches indicated an autumn rate increase might now be more likely. The dollar weakened against the pound yesterday afternoon and has continued to weaken this morning.
Today’s UK data include the results of the Average Earnings Index, forecasted to remain the same at 1.8% and Claimant Count Change, forecasted to decrease 29.0K. The US will release m/m CPI and Core CPI, both expected to remain at 0.2%. Fluctuations in today’s rate will continue as the markets react to the possibility of an autumn US rate increase.
EUR/USD: Currently trading at -1.0795
The euro continued to gain against the dollar yesterday on the back of relatively poor US data followed by US Fed member Lockhart’s uncertain outlook on the US economy, in which he stated that unexpected economic weakness means that it will likely take longer to raise short-term interest rates.
Today sees CPI figures released from both the Euro-zone and the US, so we could see significant market movement should the readings fall out of expectations. Later on in the afternoon the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is released and with the readings set to improve we may see some dollar strength. However we expect to see further euro gains for most of the day as the market digests Lockhart’s comments.
GBP/AUD: Currently trading at – 1.9163
Once the downward trend finally met resistance yesterday morning, the rate remained between 1.91 – 1.92 throughout the remainder of the day despite significant USD weakness.
With UK employments figures set to improve, and US CPI data to follow later on this afternoon, the pairing should see some movement today if figures fall either side of the forecasted level.
GBP/NZD: Currently trading at 1.9450
The kiwi dollar has so far managed to end the week where it began it against the pound, and is currently almost 3 cents higher than its peak on the 13th April.
Sterling investors will be hoping for some positive jobs data from the UK today. The release comes in the form of Average Earnings and Claimant Count Change. Both releases will have an impact on the value of the pound today and a good result would bolster sterling going into the weekend.
GBP/CAD: Currently trading at - 1.8224
We witnessed an early morning rebound by the pound yesterday, after Wednesday’s session saw the loonie surge against the pound due to the BOC latest projections. This battle for recovery did not last long as rising oil prices enabled the loonie to overturn momentum and close the day higher.
Today brings us Core CPI and Core Retail sales data from Canada in the early afternoon. Retail sales is expected to rise by 0.7 per cent and inflation to remain on target. With this in mind we expect the loonie to continue strengthening.
This blog is prepared by Caxton FX Ltd for information purposes only and may contain personal views that are not the opinion of the company. This is not an offer to purchase or sell any security or an investment advertisement. Caxton FX Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, although foreign exchange transactions with Caxton FX are regulated by HM Revenue and Customs. This email does not constitute advice for any foreign exchange transaction, nor is it intended as a solicitation for funds or recommendation to trade.
Subscribe to our morning, weekly or monthly reports here and make sure you never miss an update: https://www.caxtonfx.com/currency-banking/the-caxton-account#Free-currency-reports
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