Morning Report 13.04.2015
Nicholas Ebisch, FX Analyst
Friday saw the USD strengthen even further as cable fell from the 1.47 level into the 1.45 range against the pound, marking a new low. The pound has been weakening across the board, as the election draws nearer, but also as traders await this week’s UK data. This week’s UK data will show inflation levels and wage growth, which will be important indicators of economic growth before the run-up to the election. With the dollar at such strong levels, on the back of such weak data, a natural rebound and dollar weakness may be in the cards this week.
To discuss your currency requirements call us on 0333 123 1815 or visit www.caxtonfx.com
GBP/EUR: Currently trading at 1.3825
This currency pairing has been battling it out as each currency is grappling for the upper hand, and this week may prove pivotal. The euro is benefitting from strong German economic performance, but at the same time is faced with the risk of Greece defaulting. The single currency has been stable for the last few weeks, but may start to falter if the Greek crisis escalates. With very little on the calendar for today, sideways trading can be expected.
GBP/USD: Currently trading at 1.4588
Cable fell again on Friday, as positive sentiment from the Fed’s meeting minutes last week continued through to the end of the week. UK manufacturing data came in on target Friday, which boosted the pound against the euro, but did not help to strengthen it against the resilient dollar. With very little on the calendar today, there may be some upward movement as market participants take profits from last week’s dollar gains.
EUR/USD: Currently trading at 1.0586
The euro managed to weaken and drop off below the 1.06 mark on Friday, despite a quiet day of announcements. This was probably due to ongoing Euro-zone worries over Greece as well as the dollar still enjoying the relatively hawkish Fed meeting minutes.
We start of the week today with another quiet day of announcements for the pairing, so we expect to see fairly range bound trading with the potential for further dollar gains, in anticipation of an important day out of the US tomorrow.
GBP/AUD: Currently trading at 1.9287
Last week saw the Aussie make steady gains, finding 4 cent by Friday evening. However, today has seen a significant reversal as CNY trade balance surprisingly tumbled in March as it fell to 3.1B from 60.6B, far below the forecasted level. As China’s largest trading partner, the Aussie has taken a hit this morning as we have seen the rate move almost 2 cent in favour of the pound. This announcement places added importance on the CNY GDP figure on Wednesday.
With a quiet day today, investors will be looking towards the UK CPI data tomorrow morning to be followed by the series of US data tomorrow afternoon.
GBP/NZD: Currently trading at 1.9598
A poor Chinese Trade Balance figure this morning has seen the pound appreciate over a percent against its kiwi rival to post a new 5-day high.
The New Zealand economy remains strong, so the NZIER Business Confidence figure which is released this evening at 23:00 should in theory be positive. This would give the kiwi dollar an opportunity to take back some of the pounds gains today in the absence of any further news.
GBP/CAD: Currently trading at 1.8417
UK manufacturing data fell in line with expectation on Friday, rising 0.4 per cent in February. This increase had little impact on rate activity and was very much overshadowed by positive Canadian employment data, which revealed 28,700 jobs were created in March, plus the unemployment rate remained at 6.8 per cent.
A quiet calendar today means investors will be looking ahead to tomorrows UK CPI data and US retail sales figures. We don’t expect to see much change today and anticipate range bound activity.
This email is prepared by Caxton FX Ltd for information purposes only and may contain personal views that are not the opinion of the company. This is not an offer to purchase or sell any security or an investment advertisement. Caxton FX Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, although foreign exchange transactions with Caxton FX are regulated by HM Revenue and Customs. This email does not constitute advice for any foreign exchange transaction, nor is it intended as a solicitation for funds or recommendation to trade.
Copyright © 2015 Caxton FX, All rights reserved
This blog is prepared by Caxton FX Ltd for information purposes only
and may contain personal views that are not the opinion of the company. This is
not an offer to purchase or sell any security or an investment advertisement.
Caxton FX Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority,
although foreign exchange transactions with Caxton FX are regulated by HM
Revenue and Customs. This email does not constitute advice for any foreign
exchange transaction, nor is it intended as a solicitation for funds or
recommendation to trade.
Subscribe to our morning, weekly or monthly
reports here and make sure you never miss an update:
https://www.caxtonfx.com/currency-banking/the-caxton-account#Free-currency-reports
